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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05

3 – 4 Full time

11′Florian Neuhaus
18′Phillip Tietz
19′Lukas Ullrich
45′Sheraldo Becker
55′Stefan Posch
55′Philipp Sander
59′Isac Lidberg
62′Florian Neuhaus
64′Florian NeuhausWael Mohya
65′Anthony CaciDanny da Costa
65′Lee Jae-SungEric Martel
73′Phillipp Mwene
76′Sheraldo BeckerRansford Konigsdorffer
76′Franck HonoratKevin Stöger
76′Joe ScallyDaiki Hashioka
78′Eric Martel
84′Ko ItakuraShuto Machino
84′Hugo BolinRobin Hack
87′Wael Mohya
87′Kevin Stöger
89′Danny da Costa
90′Nadiem AmiriLennard Maloney
90′Kacper Potulski
90′Shuto Machino
90′Alexander Schwolow
90′Shuto Machino
90′Ransford Konigsdorffer

Borussia-Park, MonchengladbachReferee: Robert Hartmann

Borussia M.Gladbach 29%
Draw 24%
Mainz 05 47%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 17
7 Shots on target 8
47 Possession % 53
6 Corners 4
12 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
4 Saves 4
333 Accurate passes 390

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBorussia M.GladbachDrawMainz 05
Model20.0%20.5%59.6%
Market31.8%25.1%43.0%
Final28.9%24.0%47.2%
Edge-11.9%-4.7%+16.5%

Confidence: High

Why Mainz 05

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Borussia M.Gla ↓ / Mainz 05 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 5% 6% 1 8% 8% 7% 9% 2 5% 6% 6% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 3%

Borussia M.Gladbach and Mainz 05 expected goals

Borussia M.Gladbach 1.70
Mainz 05 2.61

Total expected goals: 4.31

Borussia M.Gladbach and Mainz 05 attack and defence ratings

Borussia M.Gladbach

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Mainz 05

Attack 1.58 +58%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05: result vs prediction

Borussia M.Gladbach 3 – 4 Mainz 05

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mainz 05 47.2% 2.12 +16.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.2% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.8% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Mainz 05 win 40.6% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Borussia M.Gladbach28.9%
Draw24.0%
Mainz 0547.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.2%
Under 2.521.8%
Both teams to scoreYes73.8%
No26.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.8%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)71.1%
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win40.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.0%
Loss40.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.3%
1-17.6%
1-37.2%

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 stats

Borussia M.Gladbach and Mainz 05 recent form

newest first
Borussia M.Gladbach LLLWWL
Mainz 05 LWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Borussia M.Gladbach wins 6Draws 3Mainz 05 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05Bundesliga1-1
2025-12-05Mainz 05Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga0-1
2025-03-07Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05Bundesliga1-3
2024-10-25Mainz 05Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga1-1
2024-03-02Mainz 05Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga1-1
2023-10-06Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05Bundesliga2-2
2023-02-24Mainz 05Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga4-0
2022-09-04Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05Bundesliga0-1
2022-04-03Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05Bundesliga1-1
2021-11-05Mainz 05Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 25.1%, away 43.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.12 3.90 2.28
Bet365 3.00 3.90 2.15
BetVictor 2.90 3.90 2.15
Betano 2.95 3.80 2.25
Betfair 3.00 3.75 2.20
Marathonbet 3.04 3.80 2.22
Pinnacle 3.11 3.78 2.23
SBO 2.63 3.31 2.23
William Hill 2.88 3.50 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.20
X 3.80 ▲ +0.05
2 2.22 ▼ -0.13

17 snapshots recorded, from .