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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

3 – 1 Full time

29′Santiago Castaneda
42′Stefano Marino
45′Wouter Burger
45′Mats RotsAlbian Hajdari
45′Marvin PieringerSteffen Tigges
50′Adam Daghim
62′Max MoerstedtTim Lemperle
62′Adam HložekPatrick Wimmer
63′Raphael ObermairJonah Sticker
69′Steffen Tigges
73′Gabriel VidovićTom Baack
73′Stefano MarinoRayan Philippe
75′Mattes HansenFelix Götze
80′Adam DaghimAndrej Kramarić
80′Leon AvdullahuFisnik Asllani

Home Deluxe Arena, PaderbornReferee: Daniel Schlager

SC Paderborn 07 25%
Draw 23%
Hoffenheim 52%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 23
5 Shots on target 2
34 Possession % 66
6 Corners 5
6 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
1 Saves 2
232 Accurate passes 542

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySC Paderborn 07DrawHoffenheim
Model33.0%27.1%39.9%
Market22.4%22.1%55.6%
Final25.0%23.3%51.6%
Edge+10.7%+5.0%-15.7%

Confidence: Medium

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SC Paderborn 0 ↓ / Hoffenheim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 12% 9% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 6%

SC Paderborn 07 and Hoffenheim expected goals

SC Paderborn 07 1.73
Hoffenheim 1.72

Total expected goals: 3.45

SC Paderborn 07 and Hoffenheim attack and defence ratings

SC Paderborn 07

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Hoffenheim

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim: result vs prediction

SC Paderborn 07 3 – 1 Hoffenheim

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hoffenheim 51.6% 1.94 -15.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.5% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.8% 1.50 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.1% 1.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SC Paderborn 0725.0%
Draw23.3%
Hoffenheim51.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%
Both teams to scoreYes66.8%
No33.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.4%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)75.0%
Handicap -1Hoffenheim win21.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss60.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-28.7%
2-17.9%

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim stats

SC Paderborn 07 and Hoffenheim recent form

newest first
SC Paderborn 07 LLDWWD
Hoffenheim LWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

0SC Paderborn 07 wins 2Draws 2Hoffenheim wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-05-23SC Paderborn 07HoffenheimBundesliga1-1
2019-11-01HoffenheimSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga3-0
2015-03-21SC Paderborn 07HoffenheimBundesliga0-0
2014-10-25HoffenheimSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.3%, draw 22.0%, away 55.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.41 4.51 1.76
Bet365 4.00 4.50 1.73
BetVictor 4.20 4.20 1.70
Betano 4.50 4.35 1.75
Betfair 4.33 4.33 1.73
Marathonbet 4.30 4.40 1.72
Pinnacle 4.30 4.48 1.73
SBO 4.03 4.18 1.70
William Hill 4.00 4.00 1.70
pinnacle 4.45 4.44 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.30 ▼ -0.19
X 4.35 ▼ -0.09
2 1.73 ▲ +0.08

28 snapshots recorded, from .