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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

2 – 0 Full time

11′Antonio Nusa
26′Brajan GrudaTidiam Gomis
44′Patrik Schick
57′Miguel Gutiérrez
67′Rômulo José Cardoso da CruzAndrija Maksimović
67′Ezechiel BanzuziNicolas Seiwald
72′Ignacio Ezequiel Agustín Fernández CarballoRobert Andrich
74′Neil El Aynaoui
77′Patrik SchickChristian Kofane
82′Edmond Tapsoba
84′Christopher NkunkuSamba Konaté
84′Ridle BakuBenjamin Henrichs
89′Moussa DiabyLucas Vázquez
90′Benjamin Henrichs
90′Afonso Moreira

BayArena, Bayer LeverkusenReferee: Robert Schroder

Bayer Leverkusen 50%
Draw 23%
RasenBallsport Leipzig 28%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 3
51 Possession % 49
9 Corners 6
14 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
414 Accurate passes 410

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBayer LeverkusenDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig
Model50.8%22.6%26.6%
Market49.1%22.8%28.1%
Final49.5%22.7%27.7%
Edge+1.7%-0.2%-1.6%

Confidence: High

Why Bayer Leverkusen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.69.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bayer Leverkus ↓ / RasenBallsport → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 6% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Bayer Leverkusen and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

Bayer Leverkusen 2.58
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.69

Total expected goals: 4.27

Bayer Leverkusen and RasenBallsport Leipzig attack and defence ratings

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.83 -17%

RasenBallsport Leipzig

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: result vs prediction

Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 RasenBallsport Leipzig

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 49.5% 2.02 +1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.3% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.9% 1.33 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.2% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bayer Leverkusen49.5%
Draw22.7%
RasenBallsport Leipzig27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.3%
Under 2.523.7%
Both teams to scoreYes74.9%
No25.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)50.5%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win32.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss49.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.5%
2-18.3%
2-27.0%

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig stats

Bayer Leverkusen and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form

newest first
Bayer Leverkusen WDWLWD
RasenBallsport Leipzig WLLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Bayer Leverkusen wins 1Draws 3RasenBallsport Leipzig wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga4-1
2025-12-20RasenBallsport LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-3
2025-01-25RasenBallsport LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBundesliga2-2
2024-08-31Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga2-3
2024-01-20RasenBallsport LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBundesliga2-3
2023-08-19Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga3-2
2023-04-23Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga2-0
2022-10-29RasenBallsport LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBundesliga2-0
2022-04-17Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga0-1
2021-11-28RasenBallsport LeipzigBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 22.8%, away 28.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.98 4.31 3.59
Bet365 1.95 4.20 3.25
BetVictor 1.93 4.20 3.25
Betano 2.00 4.30 3.40
Betfair 1.95 4.10 3.40
Marathonbet 1.93 4.20 3.62
Pinnacle 2.00 4.13 3.41
SBO 1.89 3.84 3.13
William Hill 1.95 3.90 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.05
X 4.20 ▲ +0.05
2 3.40 ▼ -0.21

19 snapshots recorded, from .