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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

5 – 0 Full time

6′Nicolás Capaldo
17′Tidiam Gomis
28′Antonio Nusa
35′Assan OuedraogoChristopher Nkunku
45′Yussuf PoulsenTerem Moffi
48′Castello Junior Lukeba
71′Shafiq Nandja
72′Willi Orbán
73′Patson DakaFábio Vieira
73′Shafiq NandjaWarmed Omari
74′Benjamin HenrichsRidle Baku
74′Tidiam GomisRômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
74′Castello Junior LukebaMaxime Esteve
74′Christopher Nkunku
77′Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz
78′Antonio NusaMax Finkgräfe
78′Albert Sambi LokongaOtto Emerson Stange
89′Zakaria El OuahdiBakery Jatta

Leipzig Red Bull Arena, LeipzigReferee: Florian Badstubner

RasenBallsport Leipzig 70%
Draw 17%
Hamburger SV 13%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 4
64 Possession % 36
8 Corners 7
11 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
557 Accurate passes 286

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV overview

Garuda Lions analysis: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawHamburger SV
Model66.6%18.7%14.7%
Market71.6%16.6%11.9%
Final70.3%17.1%12.6%
Edge-5.0%+2.1%+2.8%

Confidence: High

Why RasenBallsport Leipzig

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.32.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

RasenBallsport ↓ / Hamburger SV → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 8% 6% 3 6% 8% 4+ 8% 11% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 3%

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Hamburger SV expected goals

RasenBallsport Leipzig 3.08
Hamburger SV 1.32

Total expected goals: 4.41

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings

RasenBallsport Leipzig

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Hamburger SV

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: result vs prediction

RasenBallsport Leipzig 5 – 0 Hamburger SV

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 RasenBallsport Leipzig 70.3% 1.42 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.6% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.0% 1.43 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.4% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 RasenBallsport Leipzig win 47.6% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig70.3%
Draw17.1%
Hamburger SV12.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.6%
Under 2.522.4%
Both teams to scoreYes70.0%
No30.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.4%
12 (either side)82.9%
X2 (draw or away)29.7%
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win47.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss33.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.5%
3-17.8%
1-17.3%

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV stats

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Hamburger SV recent form

newest first
RasenBallsport Leipzig LLWWLW
Hamburger SV LLWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

6RasenBallsport Leipzig wins 1Draws 1Hamburger SV wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01Hamburger SVRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga1-2
2025-10-18RasenBallsport LeipzigHamburger SVBundesliga2-1
2022-10-18RasenBallsport LeipzigHamburger SVDFB Pokal4-0
2019-04-23Hamburger SVRasenBallsport LeipzigDFB Pokal1-3
2018-01-27RasenBallsport LeipzigHamburger SVBundesliga1-1
2017-09-08Hamburger SVRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga0-2
2017-02-11RasenBallsport LeipzigHamburger SVBundesliga0-3
2016-09-17Hamburger SVRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.9%, draw 17.3%, away 11.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.41 4.90 6.40
1xBet 1.37 5.89 8.50
Bet365 1.33 5.50 8.00
BetVictor 1.30 5.75 8.00
Betano 1.36 5.80 8.50
Betfair 1.33 5.50 8.50
Dafabet 1.41 5.20 6.60
Marathonbet 1.35 5.80 8.40
Pinnacle 1.33 6.10 7.98
SBO 1.33 4.84 6.09
Unibet 1.35 5.20 7.50
William Hill 1.33 5.00 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 —
X 5.75 ▲ +0.75
2 8.00 ▲ +0.50

28 snapshots recorded, from .