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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

2 – 1 Full time

13′Adam Hložek
35′Angelo StillerYanik Spalt
48′Maximilian Mittelstädt
55′Bambasé ContéPatrick Wimmer
63′Wouter Burger
65′Chris FührichBilal El Khannouss
65′Ermedin DemirovićDeniz Undav
67′Adam Hložek
69′Vladimír CoufalValentin Gendrey
69′Mats RotsKoki Machida
81′Ramon HendriksLeo Sauer
81′Josha VagnomanJamie Leweling
82′Adam HložekAndrej Kramarić
82′Tim LemperleFisnik Asllani

Prezero Arena, SinsheimReferee: Sven Jablonski

Hoffenheim 43%
Draw 23%
VfB Stuttgart 34%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 16
8 Shots on target 5
43 Possession % 57
5 Corners 7
15 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
4 Saves 6
277 Accurate passes 396

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHoffenheimDrawVfB Stuttgart
Model49.5%22.2%28.3%
Market40.8%23.4%35.9%
Final42.9%23.1%34.0%
Edge+8.7%-1.1%-7.6%

Confidence: High

Why Hoffenheim

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.80.
  • The market prices Hoffenheim below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hoffenheim ↓ / VfB Stuttgart → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 3%

Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

Hoffenheim 2.63
VfB Stuttgart 1.80

Total expected goals: 4.42

Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart attack and defence ratings

Hoffenheim

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.94 -6%

VfB Stuttgart

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: result vs prediction

Hoffenheim 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hoffenheim 42.9% 2.33 +8.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.5% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.9% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.5% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hoffenheim42.9%
Draw23.1%
VfB Stuttgart34.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.5%
Under 2.521.5%
Both teams to scoreYes76.9%
No23.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.0%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)57.1%
Handicap -1Hoffenheim win31.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss50.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.9%
2-17.8%
2-27.0%

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart stats

Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart recent form

newest first
Hoffenheim LLWLWD
VfB Stuttgart WWLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Hoffenheim wins 6Draws 2VfB Stuttgart wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBundesliga3-3
2025-12-20VfB StuttgartHoffenheimBundesliga0-0
2025-02-23HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBundesliga1-1
2024-10-06VfB StuttgartHoffenheimBundesliga1-1
2024-03-16HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBundesliga0-3
2023-10-28VfB StuttgartHoffenheimBundesliga2-3
2023-05-27VfB StuttgartHoffenheimBundesliga1-1
2023-01-24HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBundesliga2-2
2022-02-25HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBundesliga2-1
2021-10-02VfB StuttgartHoffenheimBundesliga3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 23.7%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.36 3.80 2.60
1xBet 2.38 4.16 2.82
Bet365 2.35 4.10 2.62
BetVictor 2.25 4.10 2.63
Betano 2.30 4.15 2.67
Betfair 2.38 4.00 2.70
Dafabet 2.40 3.85 2.65
Marathonbet 2.34 4.10 2.77
Pinnacle 2.35 4.00 2.79
SBO 2.36 3.60 2.44
Unibet 2.20 3.80 2.80
William Hill 2.30 3.80 2.60
winamax_fr 2.15 3.55 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.35 ▲ +0.35
X 4.10 ▲ +0.50
2 2.67 ▲ +0.07

27 snapshots recorded, from .