Bundesliga · 2026-09-11T18:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 3

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

1 – 3 Full time

21′			Dejan LjubičićJunior Dina Ebimbe
25′			Robin Gosens
45′			Aljoscha Kemlein
45′			Aljoscha KemleinAndrás Schäfer
45′			Livan BurcuMarin Ljubičić
46′			Adil Aouchiche
74′			Marin Ljubičić
76′			Emmanuel Latte LathTim Skarke
78′			Felix Uduokhai
80′			Robin GosensMaximilian Wöber
80′			Kenan KaramanEdin Džeko
80′			Junior Chukwubuike AdamuHwang Hee-Chan
85′			Michel AebischerJanik Haberer
90′			Woo-Yeong JeongRobert Skov
90′			Adil AouchicheJanik Bachmann
90′			Tim Skarke
90′			Loris Karius
90′			Maximilian Wöber

An der Alten Försterei, BerlinReferee: Timo Gerach

Union Berlin

36%

Draw

27%

FC Schalke 04

37%

Confidence: Medium · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	10
66	Possession %	34
4	Corners	5
11	Fouls	10
3	Offsides	3
6	Saves	7
378	Accurate passes	152

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Union Berlin	Draw	FC Schalke 04
Model	27.5%	27.1%	45.4%
Market	39.3%	26.7%	33.9%
Final	36.4%	26.8%	36.8%
Edge	-11.8%	+0.4%	+11.4%

Confidence: Medium

Why FC Schalke 04

The market prices FC Schalke 04 below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

85%

3+ goals

62%

No goals

Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

Union Berlin

1.54

FC Schalke 04

1.80

Total expected goals: 3.34

Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 attack and defence ratings

Union Berlin

Attack

1.01 +1%

Defence

1.25 +25%

FC Schalke 04

Attack

0.99 -1%

Defence

0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: result vs prediction

Union Berlin 1 – 3 FC Schalke 04

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach · 2026-09-12
Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page · 2026-09-12
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart · 2026-09-12
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page · 2026-09-12
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV · 2026-09-13
SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Union Berlin, previous: Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin analysis
Union Berlin, next: Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin prediction
FC Schalke 04, previous: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich prediction
FC Schalke 04, next: FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg: odds and pick

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Schalke 04	36.8%	2.72	+11.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.6%	1.62	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	64.6%	1.55	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.2%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.6%	1.83	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Union Berlin	36.4%
	Draw	26.8%
	FC Schalke 04	36.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.6%
	Under 2.5	38.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	64.6%
	No	35.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.2%
	12 (either side)	73.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.6%
Handicap -1	FC Schalke 04 win	25.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.5%
	Loss	54.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.4%
	1-2	9.3%
	2-1	7.1%

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 stats

Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 recent form

newest first

Union Berlin	LDWWWD
FC Schalke 04	DLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Union Berlin wins 4Draws 1FC Schalke 04 wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2023-02-19	Union Berlin	FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga	0-0
2022-08-27	FC Schalke 04	Union Berlin	Bundesliga	1-6
2021-02-13	Union Berlin	FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga	0-0
2020-10-18	FC Schalke 04	Union Berlin	Bundesliga	1-1
2020-06-07	Union Berlin	FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga	1-1
2019-11-29	FC Schalke 04	Union Berlin	Bundesliga	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 26.4%, away 32.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.24	3.60	2.88
1xBet	2.49	3.68	2.93
888Sport	2.25	3.40	2.90
Bet365	2.45	3.50	2.80
BetVictor	2.38	3.60	2.75
Betano	2.32	3.50	3.00
Betfair	2.30	3.60	3.00
Dafabet	2.34	3.60	3.00
Marathonbet	2.45	3.62	2.88
Pinnacle	2.46	3.62	2.91
SBO	2.23	3.26	2.67
Superbet	2.32	3.60	3.00
Unibet	2.17	3.65	2.95
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.80
winamax_de	1.96	3.50	2.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.63

X 3.61 ▲ +0.06

2 2.84 ▼ -0.41

26 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30 20:17:27.