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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

2 – 2 Full time

18′Christian Kofane
38′Noahkai Banks
50′Michael Gregoritsch
55′Michael Gregoritsch
58′Arijon IbrahimovicAlexis Claude-Maurice
60′M. Baum
63′Christian KofanePatrik Schick
63′Jarell QuansahGuéla Doué
72′Guéla Doué
76′Afonso MoreiraMalik Tillman
76′Ignacio Ezequiel Agustín Fernández CarballoMartin Terrier
77′Marius WolfSeol Young-woo
77′Robin FellhauerMert Kömür
85′Han-Noah MassengoYannik Keitel
85′Michael GregoritschRodrigo Ribeiro
85′Facundo MedinaLucas Vázquez
89′Patrik Schick

WWK Arena, AugsburgReferee: Daniel Siebert

Augsburg 28%
Draw 23%
Bayer Leverkusen 49%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 30
5 Shots on target 5
37 Possession % 63
2 Corners 14
6 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3
277 Accurate passes 526

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAugsburgDrawBayer Leverkusen
Model35.2%22.3%42.5%
Market25.6%23.4%51.0%
Final28.0%23.1%48.9%
Edge+9.6%-1.1%-8.6%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Augsburg ↓ / Bayer Leverkus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 5% 5% 2 6% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 5% 4+ 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 3%

Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

Augsburg 2.28
Bayer Leverkusen 2.25

Total expected goals: 4.52

Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings

Augsburg

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: result vs prediction

Augsburg 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 48.9% 2.05 -8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.2% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 79.2% 1.26 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.5% 1.74 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Augsburg28.0%
Draw23.1%
Bayer Leverkusen48.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.2%
Under 2.519.8%
Both teams to scoreYes79.2%
No20.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.1%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)72.0%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win25.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.9%
Loss57.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.5%
2-27.2%
1-27.0%

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen stats

Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

newest first
Augsburg WWWLWW
Bayer Leverkusen WLWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Augsburg wins 0Draws 6Bayer Leverkusen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18Bayer LeverkusenAugsburgBundesliga1-2
2025-12-06AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBundesliga2-0
2025-04-26Bayer LeverkusenAugsburgBundesliga2-0
2024-12-14AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-2
2024-05-18Bayer LeverkusenAugsburgBundesliga2-1
2024-01-13AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-1
2023-02-03AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-0
2022-08-13Bayer LeverkusenAugsburgBundesliga1-2
2022-01-22Bayer LeverkusenAugsburgBundesliga5-1
2021-08-28AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.8%, draw 23.4%, away 51.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.10 4.20 1.69
1xBet 3.98 4.16 1.91
Bet365 3.75 4.10 1.90
BetVictor 3.60 4.10 1.85
Betano 3.75 4.25 1.91
Betfair 3.90 4.10 1.85
Dafabet 4.30 4.30 1.72
Marathonbet 3.92 4.10 1.88
Pinnacle 3.84 4.07 1.89
SBO 3.33 3.74 1.84
Unibet 4.35 4.10 1.66
William Hill 3.70 3.80 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.75 ▼ -0.25
X 4.10 —
2 1.88 ▲ +0.15

26 snapshots recorded, from .