Bundesliga · 2026-09-12T13:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 3

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

3 – 0 Full time

5′			Fábio Silva
39′			Laurin Ulrich
65′			Joey VeermanFelix Nmecha
65′			Fábio SilvaCarney Chukwuemeka
65′			Ethan NwaneriMarcel Sabitzer
66′			Jobe Bellingham
67′			Laurin CurdaClemens Lippmann
67′			Stefano MarinoSteffen Tigges
67′			Gabriel VidovićOliver Batista Meier
77′			Julian RyersonMaximilian Beier
77′			Laurin UlrichLuka Đurić
77′			Nico SchlotterbeckRamy Bensebaini
80′			Felix Nmecha
82′			Mattes HansenRayan Philippe
89′			Felix Nmecha

Signal Iduna Park, DortmundReferee: Harm Osmers

Borussia Dortmund

72%

Draw

16%

SC Paderborn 07

11%

Confidence: Medium · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	0
56	Possession %	44
7	Corners	3
11	Fouls	7
3	Offsides	2
0	Saves	5
466	Accurate passes	380

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Borussia Dortmund	Draw	SC Paderborn 07
Model	56.4%	23.7%	19.9%
Market	77.8%	13.6%	8.6%
Final	72.5%	16.1%	11.4%
Edge	-21.4%	+10.1%	+11.2%

Confidence: Medium

Why Borussia Dortmund

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.28.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

67%

No goals

Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

Borussia Dortmund

2.44

SC Paderborn 07

1.28

Total expected goals: 3.71

Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 attack and defence ratings

Borussia Dortmund

Attack

1.41 +41%

Defence

0.83 -17%

SC Paderborn 07

Attack

1.05 +5%

Defence

0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: result vs prediction

Borussia Dortmund 3 – 0 SC Paderborn 07

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach · 2026-09-12
Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page · 2026-09-12
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart · 2026-09-12
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page · 2026-09-12
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV · 2026-09-13
SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Borussia Dortmund, previous: Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction
Borussia Dortmund, next: VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-19
SC Paderborn 07, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: odds and pick
SC Paderborn 07, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim prediction

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Borussia Dortmund	72.5%	1.38	-21.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.4%	1.48	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	65.8%	1.52	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.6%	1.13	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	43.6%	2.30	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Borussia Dortmund	72.5%
	Draw	16.1%
	SC Paderborn 07	11.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67.4%
	Under 2.5	32.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	65.8%
	No	34.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.6%
	12 (either side)	83.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	27.5%
Handicap -1	Borussia Dortmund win	36.1%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.3%
	Loss	43.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.5%
	2-1	9.6%
	2-0	7.5%

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 stats

Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 recent form

newest first

Borussia Dortmund	WWWWWW
SC Paderborn 07	LDWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Borussia Dortmund wins 3Draws 0SC Paderborn 07 wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2021-02-02	Borussia Dortmund	SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal	3-2
2020-08-28	Borussia Dortmund	SC Paderborn 07	Friendlies Clubs	1-1
2020-05-31	SC Paderborn 07	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga	1-6
2019-11-22	Borussia Dortmund	SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga	3-3
2015-10-28	Borussia Dortmund	SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal	7-1
2015-04-18	Borussia Dortmund	SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga	3-0
2014-11-22	SC Paderborn 07	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga	2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 77.4%, draw 13.9%, away 8.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.24	6.20	10.00
1xBet	1.27	7.01	11.60
Bet365	1.22	7.00	10.00
BetVictor	1.20	7.00	11.50
Betano	1.27	6.70	11.25
Betfair	1.22	7.00	11.00
Dafabet	1.25	6.60	10.00
Marathonbet	1.25	6.90	11.50
Pinnacle	1.23	7.02	10.95
SBO	1.22	5.99	8.68
Unibet	1.22	6.10	11.00
William Hill	1.22	6.00	10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.22 ▲ +0.02

X 7.00 ▲ +0.50

2 11.00 —

26 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30T20:10:18Z.