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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 2

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

4 – 0 Full time

1′E. Fernandez
4′Felix Uduokhai
28′F. Medina
47′Zeno Van Den Bosch
48′P. Schick
61′Miguel Gutiérrez
63′A. KemleinJ. Haberer
63′M. AebischerJeong Woo-Yeong
63′E. Latte LathT. Skarke
66′I. Maza
67′M. TillmanM. Diaby
67′P. SchickC. Kofane
71′F. MedinaL. Bade
71′E. FernandezR. Andrich
74′J. JuranovicC. Trimmel
79′L. BurcuA. Schafer
83′M. GutierrezLucas
88′Ibrahim Maza

BayArena, LeverkusenReferee: Robin Braun, Germany

Bayer Leverkusen 64%
Draw 20%
Union Berlin 17%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 0
64 Possession % 36
11 Corners 1
11 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 3
0 Saves 6
521 Accurate passes 260

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBayer LeverkusenDrawUnion Berlin
Model57.9%20.1%22.0%
Market65.7%19.4%14.9%
Final63.7%19.6%16.7%
Edge-7.7%+0.7%+7.0%

Confidence: High

Why Bayer Leverkusen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.69.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bayer Leverkus ↓ / Union Berlin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 5% 8% 6% 3 7% 6% 4+ 5% 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin expected goals

Bayer Leverkusen 2.99
Union Berlin 1.69

Total expected goals: 4.68

Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin attack and defence ratings

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Union Berlin

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: result vs prediction

Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 0 Union Berlin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 63.7% 1.57 -7.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.2% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.1% 1.30 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.1% 2.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bayer Leverkusen63.7%
Draw19.6%
Union Berlin16.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.2%
Under 2.518.8%
Both teams to scoreYes77.1%
No22.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.3%
12 (either side)80.4%
X2 (draw or away)36.3%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win39.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss42.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.7%
3-16.9%
1-16.8%

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin stats

Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin recent form

newest first
Bayer Leverkusen LWDLWW
Union Berlin DWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Bayer Leverkusen wins 4Draws 1Union Berlin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-0
2025-10-04Bayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBundesliga2-0
2025-04-12Bayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBundesliga0-0
2024-11-30Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-2
2024-04-06Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-1
2023-11-12Bayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBundesliga4-0
2023-04-29Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-0
2022-11-06Bayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBundesliga5-0
2022-01-08Bayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBundesliga2-2
2021-08-14Union BerlinBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 19.3%, away 15.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.43 4.80 6.20
1xBet 1.49 5.13 6.60
Bet365 1.44 4.75 6.25
BetVictor 1.44 4.80 6.50
Betano 1.47 4.90 6.10
Betfair 1.44 5.00 6.50
Dafabet 1.46 5.20 6.20
Marathonbet 1.47 5.05 6.50
Pinnacle 1.47 5.09 6.29
SBO 1.39 4.44 5.51
Superbet 1.46 5.00 6.20
Unibet 1.40 4.90 6.50
William Hill 1.44 4.60 6.00
winamax_fr 1.41 4.30 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 ▲ +0.05
X 4.92 ▲ +0.62
2 6.39 ▲ +1.79

26 snapshots recorded, from .