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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

3 – 3 Full time

Referee: Bastian Dankert, Germany

Union Berlin 34%
Draw 25%
Eintracht Frankfurt 41%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnion BerlinDrawEintracht Frankfurt
Model23.8%21.4%54.8%
Market37.0%26.5%36.5%
Final33.7%25.2%41.0%
Edge-13.2%-5.1%+18.3%

Confidence: High

Why Eintracht Frankfurt

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.85.
  • The market prices Eintracht Frankfurt below the model: +18.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Union Berlin ↓ / Eintracht Fran → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 5% 1 8% 8% 7% 8% 2 5% 7% 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 3%

Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

Union Berlin 1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt 2.49

Total expected goals: 4.34

Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt attack and defence ratings

Union Berlin

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack 1.49 +49%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt: result vs prediction

Union Berlin 3 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Eintracht Frankfurt 41.0% 2.44 +18.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.5% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.7% 1.32 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.6% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Union Berlin33.7%
Draw25.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt41.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.5%
Under 2.521.5%
Both teams to scoreYes75.7%
No24.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.0%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)66.3%
Handicap -1Eintracht Frankfurt win35.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss45.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.1%
1-17.8%
1-36.7%

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt stats

Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form

newest first
Union Berlin WWWDLL
Eintracht Frankfurt WDLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Union Berlin wins 3Draws 3Eintracht Frankfurt wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-06Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga1-1
2025-09-21Eintracht FrankfurtUnion BerlinBundesliga3-4
2025-03-09Eintracht FrankfurtUnion BerlinBundesliga1-2
2024-10-27Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga1-1
2024-03-30Eintracht FrankfurtUnion BerlinBundesliga0-0
2023-11-04Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga0-3
2023-04-04Eintracht FrankfurtUnion BerlinDFB Pokal2-0
2023-03-19Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga2-0
2022-10-01Eintracht FrankfurtUnion BerlinBundesliga2-0
2022-04-17Union BerlinEintracht FrankfurtBundesliga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 26.4%, away 36.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.54 3.55 2.54
1xBet 2.68 3.76 2.65
888Sport 2.50 3.40 2.50
Bet365 2.60 3.60 2.60
BetVictor 2.45 3.50 2.45
Betano 2.57 3.55 2.65
Betfair 2.55 3.80 2.60
Dafabet 2.60 3.60 2.65
Marathonbet 2.64 3.70 2.61
Pinnacle 2.65 3.69 2.60
SBO 2.35 3.28 2.50
Superbet 2.60 3.60 2.65
Unibet 2.55 3.40 2.60
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.50
onexbet 2.59 3.70 2.79

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.56 ▼ -0.03
X 3.58 ▼ -0.12
2 2.60 ▼ -0.19

17 snapshots recorded, from .