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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach

3 – 0 Full time

Red Bull Arena, LeipzigReferee: Sven Jablonski, Germany

RasenBallsport Leipzig 58%
Draw 22%
Borussia M.Gladbach 20%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach overview

Garuda Lions analysis: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model51.2%23.6%25.2%
Market60.5%21.2%18.2%
Final58.2%21.8%20.0%
Edge-9.4%+2.4%+7.0%

Confidence: High

Why RasenBallsport Leipzig

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.54.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

RasenBallsport ↓ / Borussia M.Gla → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 4%

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.46
Borussia M.Gladbach 1.54

Total expected goals: 3.99

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Borussia M.Gladbach attack and defence ratings

RasenBallsport Leipzig

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Borussia M.Gladbach

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach: result vs prediction

RasenBallsport Leipzig 3 – 0 Borussia M.Gladbach

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 RasenBallsport Leipzig 58.2% 1.72 -9.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.6% 1.40 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.0% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.6% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig58.2%
Draw21.8%
Borussia M.Gladbach20.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
Both teams to scoreYes71.6%
No28.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.0%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)41.8%
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win32.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss48.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-18.8%
2-26.8%

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach stats

RasenBallsport Leipzig and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

newest first
RasenBallsport Leipzig WLWLWW
Borussia M.Gladbach WWLWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5RasenBallsport Leipzig wins 2Draws 3Borussia M.Gladbach wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga1-0
2025-11-28Borussia M.GladbachRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga0-0
2025-03-29Borussia M.GladbachRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga1-0
2024-11-09RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga0-0
2024-02-17RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga2-0
2023-09-23Borussia M.GladbachRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga0-1
2023-03-11RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga3-0
2022-09-17Borussia M.GladbachRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga3-0
2022-05-02Borussia M.GladbachRasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga3-1
2021-12-11RasenBallsport LeipzigBorussia M.GladbachBundesliga4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.5%, draw 21.2%, away 18.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.55 4.35 5.10
1xBet 1.63 4.62 5.43
888Sport 1.57 4.20 4.80
Bet365 1.57 4.50 5.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.20 5.00
Betano 1.57 4.45 5.20
Betfair 1.53 4.60 5.50
Dafabet 1.59 4.60 5.20
Marathonbet 1.60 4.55 5.35
Pinnacle 1.59 4.58 5.24
SBO 1.50 4.10 4.70
Superbet 1.58 4.55 5.25
Unibet 1.53 4.30 5.30
William Hill 1.57 4.20 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▲ +0.02
X 4.47 ▲ +0.02
2 5.22 ▲ +0.02

14 snapshots recorded, from .