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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

4 – 1 Full time

Europa-Park Stadion, FreiburgReferee: Daniel Siebert, Germany

Freiburg 49%
Draw 26%
Werder Bremen 25%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFreiburgDrawWerder Bremen
Model56.7%23.3%20.0%
Market46.6%26.5%26.9%
Final49.1%25.7%25.2%
Edge+10.1%-3.2%-6.9%

Confidence: Medium

Why Freiburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Freiburg below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Freiburg ↓ / Werder Bremen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 5% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 4+ 7% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 4%

Freiburg and Werder Bremen expected goals

Freiburg 2.70
Werder Bremen 1.23

Total expected goals: 3.92

Freiburg and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings

Freiburg

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Werder Bremen

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: result vs prediction

Freiburg 4 – 1 Werder Bremen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Freiburg 49.1% 2.04 +10.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.8% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.9% 1.49 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Freiburg win 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Freiburg49.1%
Draw25.7%
Werder Bremen25.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.8%
Under 2.531.2%
Both teams to scoreYes66.9%
No33.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.8%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Freiburg win42.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss37.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-19.4%
2-07.2%

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen stats

Freiburg and Werder Bremen recent form

newest first
Freiburg WWWLWL
Werder Bremen WLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

5Freiburg wins 0Draws 1Werder Bremen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07FreiburgWerder BremenBundesliga1-0
2025-09-20Werder BremenFreiburgBundesliga0-3
2025-02-21FreiburgWerder BremenBundesliga5-0
2024-10-05Werder BremenFreiburgBundesliga0-1
2024-01-27Werder BremenFreiburgBundesliga3-1
2023-08-26FreiburgWerder BremenBundesliga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 26.5%, away 26.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.97 3.55 3.60
1xBet 2.08 3.68 3.80
888Sport 2.00 3.40 3.50
Bet365 2.10 3.30 3.50
BetVictor 1.93 3.50 3.40
Betano 2.07 3.55 3.55
Betfair 2.00 3.80 3.50
Dafabet 2.09 3.55 3.60
Marathonbet 2.05 3.62 3.74
Pinnacle 2.02 3.68 3.73
SBO 1.98 3.21 3.21
Unibet 2.10 3.40 3.35
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.50
pinnacle 2.01 3.61 3.61

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▲ +0.01
X 3.55 ▼ -0.06
2 3.50 ▼ -0.11

19 snapshots recorded, from .