Freiburg
vs
Motherwell
4 – 1 Full time
Freiburg vs Motherwell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs Motherwell
| Probability | Freiburg | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 23.5% | 23.8% |
| Market | 79.0% | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Final | 72.4% | 15.9% | 11.7% |
| Edge | -26.3% | +10.1% | +16.2% |
Why Freiburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Freiburg and Motherwell expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Freiburg and Motherwell attack and defence ratings
Freiburg
Motherwell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Freiburg vs Motherwell: result vs prediction
Freiburg 4 – 1 Motherwell
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Playoff round fixtures
Before and after this match
Freiburg vs Motherwell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 72.4% | 1.38 | -26.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 72.4% |
| Draw | 15.9% | |
| Motherwell | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 47.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Freiburg vs Motherwell stats
Freiburg and Motherwell recent form
| Freiburg |
WWLWLW |
| Motherwell |
LWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Freiburg and Motherwell going into this match
Motherwell record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Freiburg vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Motherwell | Freiburg | UEFA Europa Conference League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Freiburg vs Motherwell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.0%, draw 13.3%, away 7.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 7.75 | 13.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.21 | 7.60 | 15.00 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.19 | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.17 | 7.00 | 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 6.98 | 12.17 |
| SBO | 1.19 | 5.51 | 8.49 |
| Superbet | 1.19 | 7.40 | 12.00 |
| Unibet | 1.20 | 6.25 | 11.50 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .