ST Mirren
vs
Motherwell
3 – 3 Full time
ST Mirren vs Motherwell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ST Mirren vs Motherwell
| Probability | ST Mirren | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.9% | 32.9% | 29.2% |
| Market | 37.1% | 29.0% | 33.9% |
| Final | 37.3% | 30.0% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +3.9% | -4.7% |
Why ST Mirren
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ST Mirren and Motherwell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
ST Mirren and Motherwell attack and defence ratings
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
ST Mirren vs Motherwell: result vs prediction
ST Mirren 3 – 3 Motherwell
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
ST Mirren vs Motherwell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 37.3% | 2.68 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 37.3% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Motherwell | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.3% |
| No | 57.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Mirren win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.9% |
ST Mirren vs Motherwell stats
ST Mirren and Motherwell recent form
| ST Mirren |
WWWDDW |
| Motherwell |
LLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ST Mirren and Motherwell going into this match
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Mirren vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | ST Mirren | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 0-5 |
| 2026-01-03 | Motherwell | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | ST Mirren | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ST Mirren vs Motherwell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 29.0%, away 33.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.76 |
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 3.16 | 2.77 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.16 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 3.19 | 2.86 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 3.00 | 2.54 |
| Unibet | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .