Kilmarnock
vs
ST Mirren
0 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | F. Taylor | ||
| 38′ | Greg Kiltie | ||
| 42′ | Nikolas Agrafiotis | ||
| 46′ | J. YfekoJ. Brandon | ||
| 46′ | E. RingA. Tshibola | ||
| 46′ | T. John-JulesD. Daniels | ||
| 61′ | N. AgrafiotisJ. Young | ||
| 66′ | M. O'HaraR. McKenzie | ||
| 66′ | C. R. MochrieL. Thomas | ||
| 74′ | F. TaylorJ. Richardson | ||
| 74′ | I. KabiaE. Sule | ||
| 78′ | T. LoweryB. Rice | ||
| 82′ | Bailey Rice | ||
| 82′ | Jayden Richardson |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 370 | Accurate passes | 445 |
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren
| Probability | Kilmarnock | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 24.2% | 36.6% |
| Market | 33.4% | 26.7% | 39.9% |
| Final | 34.9% | 26.0% | 39.1% |
| Edge | +5.8% | -2.4% | -3.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren attack and defence ratings
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren: result vs prediction
Kilmarnock 0 – 1 ST Mirren
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 39.1% | 2.56 | -3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 34.9% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| ST Mirren | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Mirren win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 63.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren stats
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren recent form
| Kilmarnock |
LLLWWW |
| ST Mirren |
DWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren going into this match
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | ST Mirren | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2026-02-11 | Kilmarnock | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 4-3 |
| 2025-12-27 | ST Mirren | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Kilmarnock | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kilmarnock | ST Mirren | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-29 | ST Mirren | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 5-1 |
| 2025-01-02 | Kilmarnock | ST Mirren | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | ST Mirren | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-11 | ST Mirren | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-16 | Kilmarnock | ST Mirren | Premiership | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 26.7%, away 39.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.83 | 3.46 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.44 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.62 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.71 | 3.39 | 2.25 |
| Superbet | 2.87 | 3.55 | 2.37 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .