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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 6

ST Mirren vs Celtic

1 – 2 Full time

8′Colby Donovan
22′N. Agrafiotis
37′Calvin Ramsay
51′L. Scales
62′F. TaylorS. Ramos
68′N. AgrafiotisE. Sule
68′Yang Hyun-Jun
69′C. R. MochrieL. Thomas
72′H. HassanJ. Forrest
73′M. BaurO. Sorensen
73′Yang Hyun-JunS. Tounekti
83′R. CarrJ. Young
83′C. DuranS. Mheuka
87′C. DonovanD. Murray
90′Samuel Ramos
90′Paul Nsio
90′Eseosa Sule

The SMISA Stadium, PaisleyReferee: Ryan Lee, Scotland

ST Mirren 18%
Draw 21%
Celtic 61%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 23
6 Shots on target 8
40 Possession % 60
6 Corners 10
6 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 2
5 Saves 5
269 Accurate passes 447

ST Mirren vs Celtic overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ST Mirren vs Celtic

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityST MirrenDrawCeltic
Model28.5%25.8%45.8%
Market14.6%20.0%65.4%
Final18.1%21.4%60.5%
Edge+13.9%+5.8%-19.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Celtic

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.32.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ST Mirren ↓ / Celtic → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 12% 9% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

ST Mirren and Celtic expected goals

ST Mirren 1.32
Celtic 1.72

Total expected goals: 3.05

ST Mirren and Celtic attack and defence ratings

ST Mirren

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Celtic

Attack 1.71 +71%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ST Mirren vs Celtic: result vs prediction

ST Mirren 1 – 2 Celtic

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

ST Mirren vs Celtic markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Celtic 60.5% 1.65 -19.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.7% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.4% 1.63 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.2% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ST Mirren18.1%
Draw21.4%
Celtic60.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.4%
No38.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)39.5%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)81.9%
Handicap -1Celtic win25.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss54.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-29.3%
2-17.2%

ST Mirren vs Celtic stats

ST Mirren and Celtic recent form

newest first
ST Mirren WDWWWD
Celtic WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ST Mirren and Celtic going into this match

league record before kick-off

ST Mirren record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Celtic record

  • They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

ST Mirren vs Celtic head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1ST Mirren wins 1Draws 8Celtic wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19CelticST MirrenScotland FA Cup6-2
2026-04-11CelticST MirrenScotland Premiership1-0
2025-12-14ST MirrenCelticLeague Cup3-1
2025-11-22ST MirrenCelticScotland Premiership0-1
2025-08-03CelticST MirrenScotland Premiership1-0
2025-05-17CelticST MirrenPremiership1-1
2025-03-01ST MirrenCelticPremiership2-5
2025-01-05CelticST MirrenPremiership3-0
2024-08-25ST MirrenCelticPremiership0-3
2024-05-18CelticST MirrenPremiership3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ST Mirren vs Celtic odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.7%, draw 20.2%, away 65.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 6.00 4.65 1.46
1xBet 6.44 4.70 1.43
Bet365 6.50 4.50 1.44
BetVictor 6.50 5.00 1.40
Betano 6.40 4.60 1.47
Betfair 6.00 4.50 1.47
Dafabet 6.40 5.00 1.46
Marathonbet 6.45 4.70 1.42
Pinnacle 6.32 5.02 1.47
Unibet 6.40 4.35 1.43
William Hill 5.50 4.50 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.45 ▼ -0.93
X 4.70 ▲ +0.20
2 1.44 ▲ +0.04

13 snapshots recorded, from .