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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 6

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee

2 – 1 Full time

10′J. WestleyB. Wales
17′B. Fink
35′Josh McPake
45′Ryan Finnigan
46′O. McEnteeH. Milne
46′R. FinniganJ. Moorhouse
60′J. AltenaC. Borchgrevink
60′C. MillerS. Kerjota
62′Ethan Hamilton
65′B. FinkJ. Wright
65′A. ForrestJ. Bevan
66′J. WilsonJ. Williams
69′Imari Samuels
76′F. RobertsonZ. Besir
84′C. Braga
87′I. SamuelsC. Reilly
90′Sabah Kerjota
90′Žan Bešir
90′S. Kerjota

Tynecastle Park, EdinburghReferee: C. Graham

Heart Of Midlothian 59%
Draw 22%
Dundee 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

27 Shots 4
7 Shots on target 1
72 Possession % 28
14 Corners 2
11 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 1
0 Saves 5
525 Accurate passes 163

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHeart Of MidlothianDrawDundee
Model43.2%25.7%31.1%
Market64.8%20.6%14.6%
Final59.4%21.9%18.7%
Edge-21.6%+5.2%+16.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Heart Of Midlo ↓ / Dundee → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 12% 8% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 6%

Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee expected goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1.69
Dundee 1.41

Total expected goals: 3.10

Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee attack and defence ratings

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Dundee

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee: result vs prediction

Heart Of Midlothian 2 – 1 Dundee

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian 59.4% 1.68 -21.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.9% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.7% 1.59 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.3% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.8% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Heart Of Midlothian59.4%
Draw21.9%
Dundee18.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%
Both teams to scoreYes62.7%
No37.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.3%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)40.6%
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win23.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss56.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
2-19.1%
1-27.6%

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee stats

Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee recent form

newest first
Heart Of Midlothian WWDDDW
Dundee DLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dundee record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Heart Of Midlothian wins 0Draws 2Dundee wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Heart Of MidlothianDundeeScotland Premiership1-0
2026-01-11DundeeHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership0-1
2025-11-01Heart Of MidlothianDundeeScotland Premiership4-0
2025-04-26Heart Of MidlothianDundeePremiership0-1
2025-03-07Heart Of MidlothianDundeeScotland FA Cup3-1
2025-02-01DundeeHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-6
2024-12-07Heart Of MidlothianDundeePremiership2-0
2024-08-10DundeeHeart Of MidlothianPremiership3-1
2024-05-11Heart Of MidlothianDundeePremiership3-0
2024-02-03DundeeHeart Of MidlothianPremiership2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.9%, draw 21.3%, away 14.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.51 4.20 5.75
1xBet 1.45 4.55 6.35
Bet365 1.45 4.33 6.50
BetVictor 1.44 4.60 6.50
Betano 1.50 4.20 6.90
Betfair 1.50 4.40 5.50
Dafabet 1.49 4.70 6.40
Marathonbet 1.44 4.55 6.35
Pinnacle 1.47 4.84 6.54
Unibet 1.54 3.95 5.40
William Hill 1.44 4.33 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.07
X 4.55 ▲ +0.45
2 6.42 ▲ +0.42

9 snapshots recorded, from .