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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 6

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk

1 – 1 Full time

4′J. Murrell
19′M. MerghemJ. Randall
42′Dylan Tait
56′Zachary Sapsford
57′P. CamaraZ. Iqbal
57′D. BennieL. Rose
57′L. HendersonD. Melniks
58′E. RossA. Doherty
64′Lachlan Rose
65′J. MurrellB. Parkinson
65′B. KrauhausJ. Gardner
68′Z. SapsfordN. Farrugia
69′L. CameronA. Yoro
77′O. EamesC. Fodrey
84′Brad Spencer
88′Ben Parkinson
90′M. Forbes

Tannadice Park, DundeeReferee: D. McFarlane

Dundee Utd 50%
Draw 26%
Falkirk 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

27 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
62 Possession % 38
14 Corners 5
16 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 8
340 Accurate passes 183

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dundee Utd vs Falkirk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDundee UtdDrawFalkirk
Model54.5%24.4%21.2%
Market47.9%26.0%26.1%
Final49.5%25.6%24.9%
Edge+6.6%-1.6%-5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Dundee Utd

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dundee Utd below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dundee Utd ↓ / Falkirk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Dundee Utd and Falkirk expected goals

Dundee Utd 1.90
Falkirk 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.02

Dundee Utd and Falkirk attack and defence ratings

Dundee Utd

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Falkirk

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk: result vs prediction

Dundee Utd 1 – 1 Falkirk

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dundee Utd 49.5% 2.02 +6.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.3% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.5% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dundee Utd49.5%
Draw25.6%
Falkirk24.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
Both teams to scoreYes58.3%
No41.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.1%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)50.5%
Handicap -1Dundee Utd win32.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss45.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-19.9%
2-08.8%

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk stats

Dundee Utd and Falkirk recent form

newest first
Dundee Utd LWLLDD
Falkirk LLDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dundee Utd and Falkirk going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dundee Utd record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Dundee Utd wins 2Draws 4Falkirk wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-06FalkirkDundee UtdScotland FA Cup2-1
2026-02-14FalkirkDundee UtdScotland Premiership2-3
2025-11-22Dundee UtdFalkirkScotland Premiership0-3
2025-08-03FalkirkDundee UtdScotland Premiership2-2
2024-07-13FalkirkDundee UtdLeague Cup2-0
2023-11-17FalkirkDundee UtdChallenge Cup4-2
2023-07-25FalkirkDundee UtdLeague Cup0-1
2019-04-27Dundee UtdFalkirkChampionship2-0
2019-02-23FalkirkDundee UtdChampionship1-1
2018-12-22Dundee UtdFalkirkChampionship2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.0%, draw 25.8%, away 26.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.00 3.65 3.35
1xBet 1.97 3.58 3.57
Bet365 1.91 3.60 3.75
BetVictor 1.95 3.70 3.50
Betano 1.93 3.70 3.80
Dafabet 1.94 3.80 3.85
Marathonbet 1.95 3.58 3.58
Pinnacle 2.02 3.72 3.71
Unibet 1.92 3.60 3.40
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.15
X 3.59 ▲ +0.01
2 3.58 ▲ +0.45

12 snapshots recorded, from .