Garuda Lions
Today
Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 3

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian

2 – 1 Full time

3′Finley Frank Barbrook
8′Ben krauhaus
22′James wilson
28′Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
35′Yan Dhanda
45′James wilsonJerome Williams
55′Ryan Strain
57′Ben krauhausCalvin Fodrey
67′Owen Eames
68′Owen Eames
73′Josh McpakeRogers Mato
73′Calvin MillerSabah Kerjota
73′Harry MilneStephen Kingsley
75′Calvin Fodrey
77′Jamie McCart
78′Jacob MurrellRoss Maclver
79′Finley Frank BarbrookCraig Sibbald
80′Stuart FindlayChristian Dahle Borchgrevink
86′Owen EamesDeniss Meļņiks

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk

Falkirk 24%
Draw 25%
Heart Of Midlothian 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 4
42 Possession % 58
3 Corners 4
15 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3
3 Saves 2
265 Accurate passes 389

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFalkirkDrawHeart Of Midlothian
Model24.9%23.9%51.2%
Market24.3%25.7%50.0%
Final24.5%25.2%50.3%
Edge+0.6%-1.8%+1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Heart Of Midlothian

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Falkirk ↓ / Heart Of Midlo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals

Falkirk 1.33
Heart Of Midlothian 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.29

Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian attack and defence ratings

Falkirk

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian: result vs prediction

Falkirk 2 – 1 Heart Of Midlothian

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian 50.3% 1.99 +1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.8% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Falkirk24.5%
Draw25.2%
Heart Of Midlothian50.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.7%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)75.5%
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win30.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss48.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
1-29.5%
0-27.2%

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian stats

Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian recent form

newest first
Falkirk DLLDLL
Heart Of Midlothian WWWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian going into this match

league record before kick-off

Falkirk record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Heart Of Midlothian record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Falkirk wins 1Draws 7Heart Of Midlothian wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkScotland Premiership3-0
2026-02-21Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkScotland Premiership1-0
2026-01-17Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkScotland FA Cup1-1
2025-12-13FalkirkHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership0-2
2025-09-27Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkScotland Premiership3-0
2024-08-17FalkirkHeart Of MidlothianLeague Cup2-0
2021-07-03Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkFriendlies Clubs4-0
2020-02-08FalkirkHeart Of MidlothianFA Cup0-1
2015-03-21FalkirkHeart Of MidlothianChampionship0-3
2015-01-24Heart Of MidlothianFalkirkChampionship2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.7%, draw 25.8%, away 49.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.65 3.70 1.90
1xBet 3.83 3.64 1.87
888Sport 3.50 3.40 1.95
Bet365 3.90 3.70 1.85
BetVictor 3.80 3.70 1.87
Betano 3.85 3.65 1.93
Betfair 4.00 3.50 1.91
Dafabet 3.70 3.45 2.08
Marathonbet 3.84 3.64 1.85
Pinnacle 4.09 3.75 1.91
SBO 3.50 3.35 1.90
Unibet 3.40 3.50 1.95
William Hill 3.80 3.40 1.83

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.84 ▲ +0.36
X 3.64 ▲ +0.24
2 1.87 ▼ -0.18

47 snapshots recorded, from .