Scotland Premiership
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Motherwell
vs
Aberdeen
0 – 4 Full time
| 12′ | Lewis Mayo | ||
| 38′ | Gavin Molloy | ||
| 40′ | Tom Sparrow | ||
| 45′ | Lewis MayoJack Milne | ||
| 46′ | Connor Patrick Ronan | ||
| 53′ | Tawanda MaswanhiseSebastian Palmer-Houlden | ||
| 53′ | Jardell KangaIbrahim Said | ||
| 53′ | Emmanuel Longelo | ||
| 63′ | Afeez Aremu Olalekan | ||
| 64′ | Afeez Aremu OlalekanAlexander Briedl | ||
| 67′ | Regan Charles-CookWilly Gabriel Vogt | ||
| 68′ | Joe HodgeDylan Levitt | ||
| 72′ | Findlay MarshallStuart Armstrong | ||
| 72′ | Toyosi OlusanyaAyoub Mouloua | ||
| 75′ | Alex·LowryEythor Bjørgolfsson | ||
| 76′ | Ayoub Mouloua | ||
| 76′ | Ayoub Mouloua | ||
| 78′ | Mats KnoesterDaniel Happe | ||
| 87′ | Kevin Nisbet |
Motherwell
54%
Draw
25%
Aberdeen
21%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 69 | Possession % | 31 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 0 | Saves | 5 |
| 609 | Accurate passes | 228 |
Motherwell vs Aberdeen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
| Probability | Motherwell | Draw | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 24.7% | 14.5% |
| Market | 51.2% | 25.3% | 23.4% |
| Final | 53.6% | 25.2% | 21.2% |
| Edge | +9.6% | -0.7% | -9.0% |
Why Motherwell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Motherwell below the model: +9.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Motherwell and Aberdeen expected goals
Motherwell
1.80
Aberdeen
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.57
Motherwell and Aberdeen attack and defence ratings
Motherwell
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Aberdeen
Attack
0.66 -34%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Motherwell vs Aberdeen: result vs prediction
Motherwell 0 – 4 Aberdeen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Motherwell vs Aberdeen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 53.6% | 1.86 | +9.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 53.6% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Aberdeen | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motherwell win | 36.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Motherwell vs Aberdeen stats
Motherwell and Aberdeen recent form
| Motherwell |
LWDLLW |
| Aberdeen |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motherwell and Aberdeen going into this match
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Aberdeen record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Motherwell vs Aberdeen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Motherwell wins
1Draws
5Aberdeen wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | Scotland FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Motherwell | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Motherwell | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | Premiership | 4-1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Motherwell | Aberdeen | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Aberdeen | Motherwell | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Motherwell | Aberdeen | Premiership | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motherwell vs Aberdeen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 25.3%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.88 |
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.70 | 3.98 |
| 888Sport | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.83 | 4.28 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.42 | 3.68 |
| Unibet | 1.93 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.83 ▼ -0.37
X
3.70 ▲ +0.30
2
4.00 ▲ +0.95
47 snapshots recorded, from .