Hibernian
vs
Kilmarnock
0 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Kanayo MegwaGrant Hanley | ||
| 31′ | Tyreece John-Jules | ||
| 40′ | George Stanger | ||
| 53′ | Thibault KlidjéNathan Lowe | ||
| 53′ | Callum·WrightMartin Boyle | ||
| 53′ | Ante SutoOwen Elding | ||
| 67′ | Jacob DevaneyMiguel Changa Chaiwa | ||
| 67′ | Bailey RiceMark O'Hara | ||
| 67′ | Michael-John Kamson-KamaraJamie Brandon | ||
| 73′ | Tyreece John-JulesDjenairo Daniels | ||
| 78′ | Djenairo Daniels | ||
| 90′ | Erik RingRory McKenzie | ||
| 90′ | Djenairo Daniels |
Match stats
| 23 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 15 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 7 |
| 411 | Accurate passes | 243 |
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
| Probability | Hibernian | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.5% | 24.3% | 25.2% |
| Market | 66.8% | 19.9% | 13.4% |
| Final | 62.7% | 21.0% | 16.3% |
| Edge | -16.3% | +4.4% | +11.9% |
Why Hibernian
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.31.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hibernian and Kilmarnock expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Hibernian and Kilmarnock attack and defence ratings
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock: result vs prediction
Hibernian 0 – 1 Kilmarnock
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernian | 62.7% | 1.60 | -16.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernian | 62.7% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Kilmarnock | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernian win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 49.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock stats
Hibernian and Kilmarnock recent form
| Hibernian |
LLWLDD |
| Kilmarnock |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hibernian and Kilmarnock going into this match
Hibernian record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Hibernian | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Kilmarnock | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Hibernian | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Kilmarnock | Hibernian | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-29 | Hibernian | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Kilmarnock | Hibernian | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Kilmarnock | Hibernian | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-11 | Hibernian | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-16 | Kilmarnock | Hibernian | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-18 | Hibernian | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 20.2%, away 14.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.49 | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 5.05 | 7.21 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.62 | 6.38 |
| Unibet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
47 snapshots recorded, from .