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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 7

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian

1 – 1 Full time

10′Cathal McCarthy
16′Jamie McCart
32′Stuart FindlayHarry Milne
59′Claudio Rafael Soares BragaJerome Williams
59′Tomas Bent MagnussonEduardo Ageu
59′Josh McpakeSeverin Sabri Guendouz
63′Stephen Kingsley
67′Bailey RiceAaron Tshibola
69′Calvin MillerSabah Kerjota
76′Tyreece John-JulesMark O'Hara
82′Tom LoweryRory McKenzie
83′Michael Schjonning-Larsen
86′Stephen Kingsley
90′Christian Dahle Borchgrevink

The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, KilmarnockReferee: Duncan Nicolson

Kilmarnock 26%
Draw 24%
Heart Of Midlothian 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

4 Shots 17
0 Shots on target 3
33 Possession % 67
2 Corners 6
13 Fouls 17
2 Saves 0
181 Accurate passes 446

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKilmarnockDrawHeart Of Midlothian
Model42.7%24.9%32.4%
Market20.8%23.9%55.2%
Final26.3%24.2%49.5%
Edge+21.9%+0.9%-22.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Heart Of Midlothian

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kilmarnock ↓ / Heart Of Midlo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals

Kilmarnock 1.77
Heart Of Midlothian 1.52

Total expected goals: 3.29

Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian attack and defence ratings

Kilmarnock

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian: result vs prediction

Kilmarnock 1 – 1 Heart Of Midlothian

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian 49.5% 2.02 -22.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.9% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.6% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kilmarnock26.3%
Draw24.2%
Heart Of Midlothian49.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
Both teams to scoreYes65.9%
No34.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.5%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)73.7%
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win15.8%
Push (exactly one goal)16.6%
Loss67.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
2-18.9%
1-27.6%

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian stats

Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian recent form

newest first
Kilmarnock WDLLLL
Heart Of Midlothian LWWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kilmarnock record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Heart Of Midlothian record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Kilmarnock wins 3Draws 4Heart Of Midlothian wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership1-0
2025-12-03Heart Of MidlothianKilmarnockScotland Premiership1-1
2025-10-18KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership0-3
2025-05-18KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-1
2025-01-25Heart Of MidlothianKilmarnockPremiership3-2
2024-12-15KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianPremiership1-0
2024-10-30Heart Of MidlothianKilmarnockPremiership1-2
2024-04-27KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-0
2024-03-30Heart Of MidlothianKilmarnockPremiership1-1
2023-12-02KilmarnockHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.6%, draw 24.0%, away 55.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.51 3.92 1.69
888Sport 4.60 3.70 1.67
Bet365 4.50 3.90 1.73
BetVictor 4.50 4.00 1.70
Betano 5.10 4.30 1.67
Betfair 4.60 4.00 1.70
Marathonbet 4.60 3.92 1.66
Pinnacle 4.68 4.12 1.72
SBO 4.01 3.72 1.58
William Hill 4.33 3.80 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.50 ▼ -0.09
X 3.92 ▲ +0.01
2 1.70 ▲ +0.03

27 snapshots recorded, from .