Garuda Lions
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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 6

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian

2 – 1 Full time

17′J. Fowler
22′J. GullanK. Fotheringham
29′N. Lowe
36′Taylor Steven
41′J. Fowler
46′M. BoyleA. Suto
57′T. StevenJ. Cotterill
61′G. HanleyK. Megwa
61′J. DevaneyC. Wright
61′N. LoweT. Klidje
72′J. FowlerD. Schmidt
72′S. StantonM. Tait
72′ST JohnstoneM. Todd
75′J. MulliganN. Cadden

McDiarmid Park, PerthReferee: S. McLean

ST Johnstone 40%
Draw 28%
Hibernian 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 3
46 Possession % 54
2 Corners 7
10 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 4
2 Saves 2
363 Accurate passes 416

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ST Johnstone vs Hibernian

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityST JohnstoneDrawHibernian
Model59.7%23.8%16.5%
Market33.3%28.9%37.8%
Final39.9%27.6%32.5%
Edge+26.4%-5.0%-21.3%

Confidence: Low

Why ST Johnstone

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices ST Johnstone below the model: +26.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ST Johnstone ↓ / Hibernian → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

ST Johnstone and Hibernian expected goals

ST Johnstone 1.91
Hibernian 0.92

Total expected goals: 2.83

ST Johnstone and Hibernian attack and defence ratings

ST Johnstone

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Hibernian

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian: result vs prediction

ST Johnstone 2 – 1 Hibernian

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ST Johnstone 39.9% 2.50 +26.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.2% 1.92 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.4% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.3% 2.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ST Johnstone39.9%
Draw27.6%
Hibernian32.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%
Both teams to scoreYes52.2%
No47.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.5%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)60.1%
Handicap -1ST Johnstone win36.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss40.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-010.8%
1-010.3%

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian stats

ST Johnstone and Hibernian recent form

newest first
ST Johnstone DLLWWW
Hibernian LWLDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ST Johnstone and Hibernian going into this match

league record before kick-off

ST Johnstone record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3ST Johnstone wins 2Draws 5Hibernian wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-03-29HibernianST JohnstonePremiership3-0
2025-01-02ST JohnstoneHibernianPremiership1-1
2024-09-14HibernianST JohnstonePremiership2-0
2024-04-27ST JohnstoneHibernianPremiership1-3
2024-04-06HibernianST JohnstonePremiership1-2
2023-12-16ST JohnstoneHibernianPremiership1-0
2023-09-23HibernianST JohnstonePremiership2-0
2023-04-22ST JohnstoneHibernianPremiership1-1
2022-10-21HibernianST JohnstonePremiership1-2
2022-07-30ST JohnstoneHibernianPremiership0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 28.5%, away 38.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.66 3.40 2.50
1xBet 2.80 3.22 2.47
Bet365 2.80 3.25 2.50
BetVictor 2.75 3.40 2.45
Betano 2.92 3.35 2.47
Betfair 2.88 3.00 2.60
Dafabet 2.85 3.45 2.50
Marathonbet 2.80 3.22 2.47
Pinnacle 2.89 3.37 2.56
Unibet 2.63 3.30 2.45
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.05
X 3.24 ▼ -0.17
2 2.47 ▲ +0.07

14 snapshots recorded, from .