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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 5

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian

1 – 3 Full time

13′J. Wilson
29′J. ObitaJ. Iredale
43′L. Mendy
45′Jack Iredale
46′J. DevaneyM. Chaiwa
46′C. WrightA. Mayor
51′A. Mayor
62′Jack Iredale
62′Jack Iredale
66′J. McPake
71′B. SpittalT. Magnusson
72′J. WilsonJ. Williams
73′M. BoyleA. Suto
78′C. BragaS. Kerjota
83′N. LoweT. Klidje
85′Grant Hanley
87′J. McCartH. Milne
88′C. MillerS. Guendouz

Easter Road, EdinburghReferee: D. Robertson

Hibernian 41%
Draw 27%
Heart Of Midlothian 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 5
50 Possession % 50
7 Corners 8
16 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
300 Accurate passes 301

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHibernianDrawHeart Of Midlothian
Model50.9%24.8%24.3%
Market37.7%27.2%35.0%
Final41.0%26.6%32.4%
Edge+13.2%-2.5%-10.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Hibernian

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Hibernian below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hibernian ↓ / Heart Of Midlo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 6%

Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals

Hibernian 1.86
Heart Of Midlothian 1.23

Total expected goals: 3.09

Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian attack and defence ratings

Hibernian

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: result vs prediction

Hibernian 1 – 3 Heart Of Midlothian

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hibernian 41.0% 2.44 +13.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.7% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.1% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hibernian41.0%
Draw26.6%
Heart Of Midlothian32.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%
Both teams to scoreYes60.9%
No39.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.6%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)59.0%
Handicap -1Hibernian win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss49.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.7%
2-07.8%

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian stats

Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian recent form

newest first
Hibernian WLDDWW
Heart Of Midlothian WDDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Hibernian wins 3Draws 4Heart Of Midlothian wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26HibernianHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership1-2
2026-02-10Heart Of MidlothianHibernianScotland Premiership1-0
2025-12-27HibernianHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership3-2
2025-10-04Heart Of MidlothianHibernianScotland Premiership1-0
2025-03-02HibernianHeart Of MidlothianPremiership2-1
2024-12-26Heart Of MidlothianHibernianPremiership1-2
2024-10-27HibernianHeart Of MidlothianPremiership1-1
2024-02-28Heart Of MidlothianHibernianPremiership1-1
2023-12-27HibernianHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-1
2023-10-07Heart Of MidlothianHibernianPremiership2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 27.2%, away 35.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.50 2.60
1xBet 2.54 3.42 2.59
Bet365 2.40 3.70 2.70
BetVictor 2.55 3.50 2.60
Betano 2.52 3.55 2.70
Betfair 2.45 3.40 2.75
Dafabet 2.50 3.65 2.75
Marathonbet 2.43 3.46 2.69
Pinnacle 2.50 3.62 2.80
SBO 2.33 3.05 2.53
Superbet 2.52 3.45 2.75
Unibet 2.43 3.35 2.65
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▲ +0.01
X 3.46 ▲ +0.02
2 2.69 ▲ +0.03

9 snapshots recorded, from .