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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 4

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone

2 – 1 Full time

Tynecastle Park, EdinburghReferee: R. Lee

Heart Of Midlothian 46%
Draw 25%
ST Johnstone 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHeart Of MidlothianDrawST Johnstone
Model21.0%24.6%54.4%
Market54.2%24.7%21.1%
Final45.9%24.7%29.4%
Edge-33.2%-0.1%+33.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Heart Of Midlo ↓ / ST Johnstone → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 9% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone expected goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1.10
ST Johnstone 1.88

Total expected goals: 2.98

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone attack and defence ratings

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.26 +26%

ST Johnstone

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: result vs prediction

Heart Of Midlothian 2 – 1 ST Johnstone

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian 45.9% 2.18 -33.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.2% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.6% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 79.0% 1.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Heart Of Midlothian45.9%
Draw24.7%
ST Johnstone29.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%
Both teams to scoreYes57.6%
No42.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.6%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)54.1%
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win8.3%
Push (exactly one goal)12.7%
Loss79.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
1-29.9%
0-29.0%

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone stats

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone recent form

newest first
Heart Of Midlothian DDDWLL
ST Johnstone LWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Johnstone going into this match

league record before kick-off

ST Johnstone record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

10Heart Of Midlothian wins 0Draws 0ST Johnstone wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-05-14Heart Of MidlothianST JohnstonePremiership2-1
2025-02-23ST JohnstoneHeart Of MidlothianPremiership1-2
2024-12-22Heart Of MidlothianST JohnstonePremiership2-1
2024-11-02ST JohnstoneHeart Of MidlothianPremiership1-2
2024-02-07ST JohnstoneHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-1
2023-11-25Heart Of MidlothianST JohnstonePremiership1-0
2023-08-05ST JohnstoneHeart Of MidlothianPremiership0-2
2023-03-04Heart Of MidlothianST JohnstonePremiership3-0
2022-12-28ST JohnstoneHeart Of MidlothianPremiership2-3
2022-08-28Heart Of MidlothianST JohnstonePremiership3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.2%, draw 24.7%, away 21.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.73 3.80 4.40
1xBet 1.73 3.82 4.41
Bet365 1.73 3.75 4.50
BetVictor 1.70 3.70 4.33
Betano 1.75 3.85 4.50
Betfair 1.75 3.90 4.10
Dafabet 1.78 3.85 4.50
Marathonbet 1.71 3.82 4.45
Pinnacle 1.72 4.03 4.47
SBO 1.71 3.32 3.83
Superbet 1.78 3.80 4.45
Unibet 1.68 3.65 4.60
William Hill 1.73 3.75 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▲ +0.03
X 3.80 —
2 4.45 ▼ -0.15

12 snapshots recorded, from .