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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 4

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd

0 – 4 Full time

Rugby Park, KilmarnockReferee: N. Walsh

Kilmarnock 46%
Draw 25%
Dundee Utd 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKilmarnockDrawDundee Utd
Model68.7%17.4%13.9%
Market38.4%27.4%34.2%
Final46.0%24.9%29.1%
Edge+30.3%-9.9%-20.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Kilmarnock

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kilmarnock below the model: +30.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kilmarnock ↓ / Dundee Utd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 7% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 9% 10% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd expected goals

Kilmarnock 2.72
Dundee Utd 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.92

Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd attack and defence ratings

Kilmarnock

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Dundee Utd

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd: result vs prediction

Kilmarnock 0 – 4 Dundee Utd

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kilmarnock 46.0% 2.17 +30.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.9% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Kilmarnock win 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kilmarnock46.0%
Draw24.9%
Dundee Utd29.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%
Both teams to scoreYes65.9%
No34.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.9%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)54.0%
Handicap -1Kilmarnock win48.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss31.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
3-18.0%
2-07.3%

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd stats

Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd recent form

newest first
Kilmarnock LLWWWW
Dundee Utd LLDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dundee Utd record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Kilmarnock wins 4Draws 0Dundee Utd wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02KilmarnockDundee UtdScotland Premiership3-0
2026-02-21Dundee UtdKilmarnockScotland Premiership1-1
2025-11-29KilmarnockDundee UtdScotland Premiership1-1
2025-09-27Dundee UtdKilmarnockScotland Premiership0-2
2025-08-17KilmarnockDundee UtdLeague Cup2-1
2025-02-01KilmarnockDundee UtdPremiership1-0
2024-12-07Dundee UtdKilmarnockPremiership1-1
2024-09-28KilmarnockDundee UtdPremiership3-3
2023-05-24Dundee UtdKilmarnockPremiership0-3
2023-02-11Dundee UtdKilmarnockFA Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 27.4%, away 34.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.55 3.50 2.56
1xBet 2.39 3.44 2.76
Bet365 2.40 3.50 2.75
BetVictor 2.38 3.40 2.70
Betano 2.47 3.45 2.80
Betfair 2.45 3.40 2.75
Dafabet 2.48 3.55 2.80
Marathonbet 2.39 3.44 2.76
Pinnacle 2.41 3.59 2.81
SBO 2.25 3.08 2.62
Superbet 2.47 3.50 2.80
Unibet 2.45 3.35 2.63
William Hill 2.45 3.30 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▼ -0.10
X 3.44 ▲ +0.04
2 2.75 ▲ +0.16

12 snapshots recorded, from .