Celtic
vs
Falkirk
2 – 1 Full time
Celtic vs Falkirk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celtic vs Falkirk
| Probability | Celtic | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% |
| Market | 77.2% | 14.4% | 8.5% |
| Final | 79.1% | 13.2% | 7.7% |
| Edge | +7.7% | -4.7% | -3.0% |
Why Celtic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.69 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Celtic below the model: +7.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celtic and Falkirk expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.68
Celtic and Falkirk attack and defence ratings
Celtic
Falkirk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Celtic vs Falkirk: result vs prediction
Celtic 2 – 1 Falkirk
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Celtic vs Falkirk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 79.1% | 1.26 | +7.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 79.1% |
| Draw | 13.2% | |
| Falkirk | 7.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 70.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.6% | |
| Loss | 15.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 7.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | |
| 4-0 | 7.2% |
Celtic vs Falkirk stats
Celtic and Falkirk recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celtic and Falkirk going into this match
Celtic record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Celtic vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Falkirk | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Celtic | Falkirk | League Cup | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Celtic | Falkirk | League Cup | 5-2 |
| 2021-04-03 | Celtic | Falkirk | FA Cup | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Celtic vs Falkirk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.2%, draw 14.4%, away 8.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.21 | 6.20 | 12.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 6.65 | 12.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 6.60 | 11.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.50 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 7.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 6.65 | 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.20 | 6.90 | 11.59 |
| SBO | 1.20 | 5.51 | 7.91 |
| Superbet | 1.23 | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| Unibet | 1.19 | 6.50 | 11.50 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .