Fortuna Düsseldorf
vs
Freiburg
1 – 5 Full time
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg
| Probability | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 4.7% | 12.4% | 82.9% |
| Market | 13.6% | 19.1% | 67.3% |
| Final | 11.4% | 17.4% | 71.2% |
| Edge | -8.9% | -6.7% | +15.6% |
Why Freiburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Freiburg below the model: +15.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Freiburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Freiburg attack and defence ratings
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Freiburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg: result vs prediction
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 – 5 Freiburg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Preußen Münster v Karlsruher SC — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Hansa Rostock v VfB Stuttgart — match page
- SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Energie Cottbus vs Augsburg
- MSV Duisburg v SV Elversberg — match page
- Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 71.2% | 1.40 | +15.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11.4% |
| Draw | 17.4% | |
| Freiburg | 71.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 28.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 64.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 17.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.6% |
| 0-3 | 12.1% | |
| 0-4 | 8.7% |
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg stats
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Freiburg recent form
| Fortuna Düsseldorf |
LLLWLW |
| Freiburg |
WLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-29 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Freiburg | DFB Pokal | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.9%, draw 19.0%, away 67.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| 1xBet | 6.93 | 4.90 | 1.39 |
| 888Sport | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 6.20 | 5.00 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.00 | 5.20 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 6.95 | 4.90 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.86 | 5.17 | 1.39 |
| SBO | 5.99 | 4.47 | 1.33 |
| Superbet | 6.40 | 4.90 | 1.39 |
| Unibet | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .