Garuda Lions
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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

0 – 0 Full time

Mewa Arena, MainzReferee: Tobias Stieler, Germany

Mainz 05 57%
Draw 23%
SC Paderborn 07 20%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMainz 05DrawSC Paderborn 07
Model59.1%19.1%21.8%
Market56.4%23.7%19.8%
Final57.1%22.5%20.3%
Edge+2.7%-4.7%+2.0%

Confidence: Medium

Why Mainz 05

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.18 vs 1.78.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mainz 05 ↓ / SC Paderborn 0 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 7% 6% 3 7% 6% 4+ 5% 10% 9% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 2%

Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

Mainz 05 3.18
SC Paderborn 07 1.78

Total expected goals: 4.96

Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 attack and defence ratings

Mainz 05

Attack 1.66 +66%
Defence 0.96 -4%

SC Paderborn 07

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: result vs prediction

Mainz 05 0 – 0 SC Paderborn 07

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mainz 05 57.1% 1.75 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84.2% 1.19 — —
Both teams to score Yes 79.5% 1.26 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.7% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Mainz 05 win 41.3% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mainz 0557.1%
Draw22.5%
SC Paderborn 0720.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584.2%
Under 2.515.8%
Both teams to scoreYes79.5%
No20.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.7%
12 (either side)77.5%
X2 (draw or away)42.9%
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win41.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss40.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.0%
3-16.7%
2-26.3%

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 stats

Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 recent form

newest first
Mainz 05 WWLWLD
SC Paderborn 07 WWDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3Mainz 05 wins 1Draws 0SC Paderborn 07 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-02-29Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga2-0
2019-10-05SC Paderborn 07Mainz 05Bundesliga1-2
2015-01-31Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga5-0
2014-08-24SC Paderborn 07Mainz 05Bundesliga2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 23.6%, away 19.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.66 3.90 4.75
1xBet 1.72 4.26 5.03
888Sport 1.67 3.90 4.60
Bet365 1.67 4.00 5.00
BetVictor 1.62 3.90 4.50
Betano 1.70 3.95 4.80
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.75
Dafabet 1.71 4.10 4.80
Marathonbet 1.69 4.20 4.95
Pinnacle 1.68 4.24 4.91
SBO 1.67 3.52 4.11
Superbet 1.72 4.00 4.70
Unibet 1.67 3.85 4.75
William Hill 1.67 3.90 4.60
onexbet 1.74 4.21 4.93

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.07
X 3.98 ▼ -0.23
2 4.75 ▼ -0.18

17 snapshots recorded, from .