Garuda Lions
Today
Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 1

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim

3 – 2 Full time

RheinEnergieStadion, CologneReferee: Florian Badstubner, Germany

FC Cologne 32%
Draw 26%
Hoffenheim 42%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC CologneDrawHoffenheim
Model29.9%25.6%44.5%
Market32.5%26.0%41.5%
Final31.8%25.9%42.2%
Edge-2.6%-0.5%+3.0%

Confidence: High

Why Hoffenheim

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Hoffenheim below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Cologne ↓ / Hoffenheim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 5%

FC Cologne and Hoffenheim expected goals

FC Cologne 1.75
Hoffenheim 1.92

Total expected goals: 3.67

FC Cologne and Hoffenheim attack and defence ratings

FC Cologne

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Hoffenheim

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim: result vs prediction

FC Cologne 3 – 2 Hoffenheim

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Hoffenheim 42.2% 2.37 +3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.0% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.6% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.8% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Cologne31.8%
Draw25.9%
Hoffenheim42.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.0%
Under 2.532.0%
Both teams to scoreYes69.6%
No30.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.8%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)68.2%
Handicap -1Hoffenheim win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss55.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-28.8%
2-17.2%

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim stats

FC Cologne and Hoffenheim recent form

newest first
FC Cologne WLLDLD
Hoffenheim WLWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2FC Cologne wins 3Draws 5Hoffenheim wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21FC CologneHoffenheimBundesliga2-2
2025-10-03HoffenheimFC CologneBundesliga0-1
2024-02-11HoffenheimFC CologneBundesliga1-1
2023-09-16FC CologneHoffenheimBundesliga1-3
2023-04-22HoffenheimFC CologneBundesliga1-3
2022-10-30FC CologneHoffenheimBundesliga1-1
2022-03-06FC CologneHoffenheimBundesliga0-1
2021-10-15HoffenheimFC CologneBundesliga5-0
2021-01-24HoffenheimFC CologneBundesliga3-0
2020-09-19FC CologneHoffenheimBundesliga2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cologne vs Hoffenheim odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 26.0%, away 41.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.80 3.65 2.28
1xBet 3.02 3.80 2.38
888Sport 2.90 3.40 2.25
Bet365 3.00 3.70 2.25
BetVictor 2.75 3.60 2.20
Betano 2.90 3.60 2.35
Betfair 2.80 4.00 2.30
Dafabet 2.95 3.65 2.34
Marathonbet 2.97 3.74 2.34
Pinnacle 2.95 3.78 2.32
SBO 2.63 3.23 2.28
Superbet 2.95 3.65 2.32
Unibet 2.95 3.65 2.18
William Hill 2.90 3.50 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.92 ▲ +0.02
X 3.65 —
2 2.29 ▲ +0.02

14 snapshots recorded, from .