UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

4 – 1 Full time

2′Willi Orbán
15′Martin Baturina
24′Christopher Nkunku
38′Anastasios Douvikas
47′Nico Paz
54′Assane Diao Diaoune
58′Andrija Maksimović
60′Nicolas SeiwaldTidiam Gomis
60′Marc GuiuAssan Ouedraogo
60′Christopher NkunkuEzechiel Banzuzi
64′Ezechiel Banzuzi
65′Anastasios DouvikasMoise Kean
65′Lucas Da CunhaMaximo Perrone
66′Martin BaturinaMarc-Oliver Kempf
70′Andrija MaksimovićBrajan Gruda
74′Yan CoutoIvan Smolcic
86′Assane Diao DiaouneSamuele Ricci
88′Ridle BakuBenjamin Henrichs
90′Maximo Perrone
90′Maximo Perrone

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, ComoReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Como 53%
Draw 23%
RasenBallsport Leipzig 24%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 4
49 Possession % 51
1 Corners 5
9 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
467 Accurate passes 444

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityComoDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig
Model48.0%23.1%28.9%
Market54.2%23.4%22.4%
Final52.7%23.3%24.0%
Edge-6.2%-0.3%+6.5%

Confidence: High

Why Como

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.57.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Como ↓ / RasenBallsport → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Como and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

Como 2.04
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.57

Total expected goals: 3.61

Como and RasenBallsport Leipzig attack and defence ratings

Como

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.79 -21%

RasenBallsport Leipzig

Attack 1.57 +57%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: result vs prediction

Como 4 – 1 RasenBallsport Leipzig

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Como 52.7% 1.90 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.8% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.7% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.0% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Como52.7%
Draw23.3%
RasenBallsport Leipzig24.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%
Both teams to scoreYes69.7%
No30.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.0%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)47.3%
Handicap -1Como win28.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss52.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-18.9%
2-26.9%

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig stats

Como and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Como vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 23.8%, away 23.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.78 4.10 3.80
1xBet 1.83 4.22 4.32
888Sport 1.80 3.80 4.00
Bet365 1.75 4.20 4.00
BetVictor 1.75 4.00 4.33
Betano 1.83 4.15 4.20
Betfair 1.80 4.00 4.10
Dafabet 1.87 3.95 3.95
Marathonbet 1.80 4.15 4.25
Pinnacle 1.79 4.07 4.35
SBO 1.78 3.52 3.55
Superbet 1.80 4.00 4.00
Unibet 1.80 3.95 4.10
William Hill 1.75 3.80 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.77 ▼ -0.32
X 4.11 ▲ +0.51
2 4.29 ▲ +0.99

14 snapshots recorded, from .