Bundesliga · 2026-10-11T13:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach

2 – 1 Full time

13′			Marius Bülter
24′			Jan Leszczynski
26′			Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
39′			Joe Scally
45′			Ellyes SkhiriTom Krauß
64′			Isac LidbergShuto Machino
64′			Robin HackWael Mohya
67′			Said El Mala
68′			Florian NeuhausZento Uno
78′			Said El MalaJan Thielmann
78′			Luka LochoshviliJoel Schmied
80′			Daiki HashiokaFritz Fleck
80′			Jan LeszczynskiFabio Cristian Chiarodia
81′			Zento Uno
85′			Mikey MooreImad Rondić
90′			Linton MainaLuca Waldschmidt
90′			Shuto Machino

RheinEnergieStadion, CologneReferee: Florian Badstubner

FC Cologne

49%

Draw

24%

Borussia M.Gladbach

28%

Confidence: High · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	7
48	Possession %	52
6	Corners	6
8	Fouls	17
1	Offsides	1
6	Saves	5
314	Accurate passes	339

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Cologne	Draw	Borussia M.Gladbach
Model	52.2%	21.8%	26.0%
Market	47.3%	24.6%	28.2%
Final	48.5%	23.9%	27.6%
Edge	+1.2%	-0.7%	-0.5%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Cologne

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.73.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

93%

3+ goals

78%

No goals

FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

FC Cologne

2.70

Borussia M.Gladbach

1.73

Total expected goals: 4.43

FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach attack and defence ratings

FC Cologne

Attack

1.18 +18%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Borussia M.Gladbach

Attack

1.08 +8%

Defence

1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach: result vs prediction

FC Cologne 2 – 1 Borussia M.Gladbach

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page · 2026-10-09
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-10-10
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich · 2026-10-10
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart · 2026-10-10
RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page · 2026-10-10
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

FC Cologne, previous: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne prediction
FC Cologne, next: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis
Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 analysis
Borussia M.Gladbach, next: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Cologne	48.5%	2.06	+1.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.5%	1.27	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	76.4%	1.31	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.1%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.8%	2.09	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Cologne	48.5%
	Draw	23.9%
	Borussia M.Gladbach	27.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	78.5%
	Under 2.5	21.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	76.4%
	No	23.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	72.4%
	12 (either side)	76.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	51.5%
Handicap -1	FC Cologne win	33.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.5%
	Loss	47.8%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	8.0%
	1-1	7.9%
	2-2	6.9%

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach stats

FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

newest first

FC Cologne	LDLWWL
Borussia M.Gladbach	LLLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Cologne wins 3Draws 3Borussia M.Gladbach wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-21	FC Cologne	Borussia M.Gladbach	Bundesliga	3-3
2025-11-08	Borussia M.Gladbach	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	3-1
2024-03-09	Borussia M.Gladbach	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	3-3
2023-10-22	FC Cologne	Borussia M.Gladbach	Bundesliga	3-1
2023-04-02	FC Cologne	Borussia M.Gladbach	Bundesliga	0-0
2022-10-09	Borussia M.Gladbach	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	5-2
2022-04-16	Borussia M.Gladbach	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-3
2021-11-27	FC Cologne	Borussia M.Gladbach	Bundesliga	4-1
2021-02-06	Borussia M.Gladbach	FC Cologne	Bundesliga	1-2
2020-10-03	FC Cologne	Borussia M.Gladbach	Bundesliga	1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 24.6%, away 28.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.09	4.00	3.49
Bet365	1.95	3.90	3.40
BetVictor	1.95	3.90	3.40
Betano	2.05	3.85	3.60
Betfair	1.95	3.90	3.70
Dafabet	2.03	3.90	3.40
Marathonbet	2.03	3.90	3.40
Pinnacle	2.04	3.83	3.53
SBO	2.02	3.53	3.01
William Hill	1.95	3.60	3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▲ +0.18

X 3.90 ▼ -0.06

2 3.40 ▼ -0.38

47 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-18T08:10:01Z.