FC Cologne
vs
Borussia M.Gladbach
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cologne
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Probability | FC Cologne | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 21.8% | 25.9% |
| Market | 46.4% | 24.3% | 29.2% |
| Final | 47.9% | 23.7% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +5.8% | -2.6% | -3.3% |
Why FC Cologne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.73.
- The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach match preview
FC Cologne faces Borussia M.Gladbach in a Bundesliga clash, with FC Cologne holding a 49% probability of winning compared to 28% for Borussia M.Gladbach and a 23% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FC Cologne, which has an 8% probability. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with 76% likelihood for both teams to find the net and a strong 79% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form indicates mixed results for both sides, as FC Cologne has recorded a sequence of L-D-L-W-W-L, while Borussia M.Gladbach has struggled with L-L-L-L-W-W. In their last four encounters, FC Cologne has secured 1 win, while Borussia M.Gladbach also has 1 win, with 2 matches ending in draws. The expected goals for FC Cologne stand at 2.71, while Borussia M.Gladbach is at 1.73.
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach team news
FC Cologne news
- A. Castro-Montes — muscle injury
- T. Dallinga — knee injury
- T. Hubers — knee injury
Borussia M.Gladbach news
- E. Leopold — knee injury
- F. Honorat — muscle injury
- J. Castrop — shoulder injury
- N. Kuhn — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.45
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach attack and defence ratings
FC Cologne
Borussia M.Gladbach
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 47.9% | 2.09 | +5.8% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 47.9% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% |
| No | 23.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach stats
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
| FC Cologne |
LDLWWL |
| Borussia M.Gladbach |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | FC Cologne | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Borussia M.Gladbach | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-09 | Borussia M.Gladbach | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2023-10-22 | FC Cologne | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 24.3%, away 29.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 4.15 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.95 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 4.05 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 4.07 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .