Freiburg
vs
FC Schalke 04
Garuda Lions Prediction: Freiburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
| Probability | Freiburg | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 29.9% | 26.4% |
| Market | 58.1% | 23.6% | 18.3% |
| Final | 54.5% | 25.2% | 20.3% |
| Edge | -14.4% | +6.3% | +8.2% |
Why Freiburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 match preview
Freiburg is set to face FC Schalke 04 in their upcoming Bundesliga match, with a probability of 54% for a Freiburg win, while a draw stands at 25% and Schalke at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Freiburg, occurring with a 9% probability. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 51%, and both teams are projected to score, with a probability of 57%.
In terms of expected goals, Freiburg is anticipated to score 1.73, while Schalke is expected to net 1.18. Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Freiburg recording five wins and one draw in their last six matches, while Schalke has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 team news
Freiburg news
FC Schalke 04 news
- D. Ljubicic — knee injury
- T. Becker — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 attack and defence ratings
Freiburg
FC Schalke 04
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
Before and after this match
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 54.5% | 1.83 | -14.4% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 54.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 20.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 8.9% |
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 stats
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 recent form
| Freiburg |
DWWWWW |
| FC Schalke 04 |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.1%, draw 23.6%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.07 | 5.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.96 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 3.98 | 5.85 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.65 | 4.24 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .