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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

2 – 1 Full time

10′Maximilian Eggestein
30′Kenan Karaman
49′Yuito Suzuki
57′Matthias Ginter
64′Yuito Suzuki
65′Igor MatanovicLucas Höler
69′Jan-Niklas BesteCyriaque Irié
69′Yannick EngelhardtKeisuke Goto
69′Satoshi TanakaRon Schallenberg
69′Junior Chukwubuike AdamuEdin Džeko
79′Adrian Tobias GantenbeinAdil Aouchiche
79′Maximilian WöberTimo Becker
79′Moussa SyllaHwang Hee-Chan
83′Philipp TreuLukas Kübler
83′Derry Lionel ScherhantVincenzo Grifo
85′Keisuke Goto
87′Hwang Hee-Chan

Europa-Park-Stadion, FreiburgReferee: Martin Petersen

Freiburg 54%
Draw 25%
FC Schalke 04 21%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 1
51 Possession % 49
7 Corners 2
11 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 5
0 Saves 3
334 Accurate passes 328

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFreiburgDrawFC Schalke 04
Model43.6%29.9%26.4%
Market57.8%23.5%18.7%
Final54.2%25.1%20.6%
Edge-3.5%+1.6%+1.9%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Freiburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Freiburg ↓ / FC Schalke 04 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 8% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 9%

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

Freiburg 1.72
FC Schalke 04 1.17

Total expected goals: 2.90

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 attack and defence ratings

Freiburg

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.86 -14%

FC Schalke 04

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04: result vs prediction

Freiburg 2 – 1 FC Schalke 04

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Freiburg 54.2% 1.84 -3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.2% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.8% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.4% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.3% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Freiburg54.2%
Draw25.1%
FC Schalke 0420.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%
Both teams to scoreYes56.8%
No43.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.4%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)45.8%
Handicap -1Freiburg win23.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss56.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
2-19.3%
0-09.0%

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 stats

Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 recent form

newest first
Freiburg DWWWWW
FC Schalke 04 DWDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Freiburg wins 2Draws 2FC Schalke 04 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-04-23FreiburgFC Schalke 04Bundesliga4-0
2022-10-30FC Schalke 04FreiburgBundesliga0-2
2021-04-17FreiburgFC Schalke 04Bundesliga4-0
2020-12-16FC Schalke 04FreiburgBundesliga0-2
2020-06-27FreiburgFC Schalke 04Bundesliga4-0
2019-12-21FC Schalke 04FreiburgBundesliga2-2
2019-02-16FC Schalke 04FreiburgBundesliga0-0
2018-09-25FreiburgFC Schalke 04Bundesliga1-0
2018-03-31FC Schalke 04FreiburgBundesliga2-0
2017-11-04FreiburgFC Schalke 04Bundesliga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.8%, draw 23.5%, away 18.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.69 4.12 5.49
Bet365 1.62 4.00 5.25
BetVictor 1.60 4.20 5.00
Betano 1.72 4.20 4.90
Betfair 1.65 3.90 5.00
Dafabet 1.65 4.10 5.20
Marathonbet 1.67 4.05 5.40
Pinnacle 1.65 4.06 5.43
SBO 1.62 3.76 4.48
William Hill 1.62 3.80 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▲ +0.04
X 4.05 ▼ -0.11
2 5.10 ▲ +0.20

47 snapshots recorded, from .