Augsburg
vs
Bayern Munich
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayern Munich
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
| Probability | Augsburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.2% | 19.2% | 63.7% |
| Market | 8.4% | 11.2% | 80.4% |
| Final | 10.6% | 13.2% | 76.2% |
| Edge | +8.7% | +8.0% | -16.7% |
Why Bayern Munich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich match preview
Augsburg will face Bayern Munich in a Bundesliga match on October 10, 2026. The model assigns Augsburg a 12% chance of winning, while Bayern Munich has a strong 74% probability to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. There is a high expectation for goals, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 79% and both teams to score at 73%. Expected goals metrics suggest Augsburg will generate 1.62, while Bayern Munich is projected at 2.76.
Recent form shows Augsburg with a mixed record of L-D-W-W-W-L, while Bayern Munich has been more consistent, recording W-W-W-D-W-W. In their last six encounters, Augsburg has managed just one win against Bayern Munich's five victories, indicating a significant historical advantage for the visitors. The confidence grade for this match is A, reflecting a strong alignment of probabilities with market odds.
Augsburg and Bayern Munich team news
Augsburg news
- N. Banks — knee injury
- S. Mounie — injury
- S. Suso — muscle injury
- T. Breithaupt — toe injury
Bayern Munich news
- J. Musiala — muscle injury
- T. Buchmann — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Augsburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.39
Augsburg and Bayern Munich attack and defence ratings
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 76.2% | 1.31 | -16.7% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 10.6% |
| Draw | 13.2% | |
| Bayern Munich | 76.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.2% |
| No | 26.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 23.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 44.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-3 | 7.5% | |
| 1-1 | 7.1% |
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich stats
Augsburg and Bayern Munich recent form
| Augsburg |
LDWWWL |
| Bayern Munich |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bayern Munich | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Augsburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-04 | Augsburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-22 | Bayern Munich | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2024-01-27 | Augsburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-27 | Bayern Munich | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Bayern Munich | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 5-3 |
| 2022-10-19 | Augsburg | Bayern Munich | DFB Pokal | 2-5 |
| 2022-09-17 | Augsburg | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-09 | Bayern Munich | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.4%, draw 11.2%, away 80.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 13.80 | 9.50 | 1.19 |
| Bet365 | 11.00 | 8.50 | 1.18 |
| BetVictor | 11.50 | 7.50 | 1.13 |
| Betano | 10.75 | 8.00 | 1.20 |
| Betfair | 13.00 | 8.50 | 1.17 |
| Dafabet | 12.00 | 9.00 | 1.19 |
| Marathonbet | 12.75 | 8.80 | 1.18 |
| Pinnacle | 10.48 | 9.32 | 1.19 |
| SBO | 9.26 | 7.05 | 1.15 |
| William Hill | 11.00 | 8.00 | 1.17 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .