Union Berlin
vs
SV Elversberg
1 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | Janik Haberer | ||
| 21′ | Tim Skarke | ||
| 58′ | Kastriot ImeriLivan Burcu | ||
| 59′ | Tom ZimmerschiedMaurice Krattenmacher | ||
| 70′ | Noel FutkeuCole Campbell | ||
| 71′ | Lasse GüntherNicholas Mickelson | ||
| 71′ | Noah DarvichDavid Mokwa | ||
| 77′ | Michel AebischerChristopher Trimmel | ||
| 78′ | Woo-Yeong JeongM. Gray | ||
| 78′ | Tim SkarkeOliver Burke | ||
| 81′ | Livan Burcu | ||
| 86′ | Luca SirchFrederik Schmahl | ||
| 90′ | Maurice Krattenmacher | ||
| 90′ | András SchäferAljoscha Kemlein |
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 7 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 254 | Accurate passes | 368 |
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
| Probability | Union Berlin | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.9% | 21.0% | 59.1% |
| Market | 40.1% | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| Final | 35.0% | 24.6% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -5.1% | -1.2% | +6.3% |
Why SV Elversberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices SV Elversberg below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.18
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg attack and defence ratings
Union Berlin
SV Elversberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: result vs prediction
Union Berlin 1 – 0 SV Elversberg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Elversberg | 40.4% | 2.48 | +6.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 35.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| SV Elversberg | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | SV Elversberg win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-3 | 7.3% |
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg stats
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg recent form
| Union Berlin |
LLLDWW |
| SV Elversberg |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 25.6%, away 34.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.96 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.73 | 2.84 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.28 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
45 snapshots recorded, from .