Union Berlin
vs
SV Elversberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: SV Elversberg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
| Probability | Union Berlin | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.9% | 21.0% | 59.1% |
| Market | 40.8% | 25.7% | 33.5% |
| Final | 35.6% | 24.5% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -20.9% | -4.7% | +25.6% |
Why SV Elversberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +25.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg match preview
Union Berlin faces SV Elversberg in a Bundesliga matchup on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, with Union Berlin holding a 36% probability of victory, while SV Elversberg is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of SV Elversberg, occurring at a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals projected at 76% and both teams to score at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Union Berlin has struggled, recording three losses followed by a draw and a win in their last five matches. In contrast, SV Elversberg has shown stronger performance, with four wins and a draw in their last five fixtures. The expected goals suggest Union Berlin will score 1.64, while SV Elversberg is anticipated to net 2.53.
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg team news
Union Berlin news
- A. Ilic — illness
- A. Markgraf — knee injury
- M. Friedrich — knock
- O. Burke — achilles tendon injury
- S. Nsoki — muscle injury
SV Elversberg news
- F. Onyeka — foot injury
- L. Schnellbacher — injury
- L. Seifert — ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.18
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg attack and defence ratings
Union Berlin
SV Elversberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Elversberg | 39.9% | 2.51 | +25.6% | 2.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 35.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| SV Elversberg | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | SV Elversberg win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-3 | 7.3% |
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg stats
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg recent form
| Union Berlin |
LLLDWW |
| SV Elversberg |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 25.7%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.96 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.79 | 2.84 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.28 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .