NEC Nijmegen
vs
Levski Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC Nijmegen
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 5% model probability
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
| Probability | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 25.6% | 56.7% |
| Market | 50.5% | 25.1% | 24.4% |
| Final | 42.3% | 25.2% | 32.5% |
| Edge | -32.8% | +0.5% | +32.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia match preview
NEC Nijmegen faces Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League with a kickoff scheduled for October 15, 2026. According to our model, NEC Nijmegen has a 42% probability of winning, while Levski Sofia stands at 32%, and a draw is rated at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of NEC Nijmegen, with an expected goals tally of 0.89 for them compared to 1.76 for Levski Sofia.
In terms of recent form, NEC Nijmegen has recorded a series of results including two draws and three losses in their last five matches, while Levski Sofia has shown slightly better form with three wins, one draw, and one loss. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 49%, and both teams to score is at 50%, indicating a competitive matchup. The overall confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia attack and defence ratings
NEC Nijmegen
Levski Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 42.3% | 2.36 | -32.8% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 82.2% | 1.22 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 42.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Levski Sofia | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win | 6.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.6% | |
| Loss | 82.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-2 | 10.9% |
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia stats
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia recent form
| NEC Nijmegen |
DLLDLW |
| Levski Sofia |
LDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 25.1%, away 24.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.84 | 4.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.78 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.78 | 3.95 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.21 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .