NEC Nijmegen
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC Nijmegen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
| Probability | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.4% | 26.1% | 38.5% |
| Market | 57.3% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| Final | 51.8% | 23.1% | 25.1% |
| Edge | -21.8% | +4.0% | +17.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard match preview
NEC Nijmegen faces Fortuna Sittard in an Eredivisie clash, with NEC holding a 55% probability of winning compared to 23% for Fortuna Sittard and 22% for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of NEC Nijmegen, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for NEC are 1.52, while Fortuna Sittard is slightly ahead at 1.67.
Recent form shows NEC Nijmegen with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Fortuna Sittard has recorded two wins, a loss, and three draws. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Fortuna Sittard has won both matches against NEC Nijmegen. The model indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood for both teams to score.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard team news
NEC Nijmegen news
- A. Thomas — inactive
- B. Nuytinck — ankle injury
- D. Tadic — injury
- E. Mor — groin injury
- P. Sandler — injury
Fortuna Sittard news
- I. Marquez — injury
- J. Dahlhaus — inactive
- R. Bayram — knee injury
- Y. Oukili — groin injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard attack and defence ratings
NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 51.8% | 1.93 | -21.8% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 51.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Fortuna Sittard | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win | 17.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard stats
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard recent form
| NEC Nijmegen |
DDDLLD |
| Fortuna Sittard |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard season so far
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Fortuna Sittard record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
| 2025-01-19 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-02 | Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-15 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 4-1 |
| 2023-05-28 | Fortuna Sittard | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-19 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | KNVB Beker | 3-2 |
| 2022-09-10 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-15 | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.7%, draw 21.8%, away 20.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.43 | 4.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.45 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.60 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.24 | 4.56 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.95 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .