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Eredivisie · Full time ·Matchday 9

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

2 – 1 Full time

Bingoal Stadion, The HagueReferee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

ADO Den Haag 13%
Draw 16%
PSV Eindhoven 71%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityADO Den HaagDrawPSV Eindhoven
Model19.9%20.1%60.0%
Market11.2%14.6%74.3%
Final13.4%15.9%70.7%
Edge+8.7%+5.5%-14.2%

Confidence: Low

Why PSV Eindhoven

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ADO Den Haag ↓ / PSV Eindhoven → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 5% 6% 1 8% 9% 7% 8% 2 5% 6% 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven expected goals

ADO Den Haag 1.39
PSV Eindhoven 2.45

Total expected goals: 3.85

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven attack and defence ratings

ADO Den Haag

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.10 +10%

PSV Eindhoven

Attack 1.49 +49%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven: result vs prediction

ADO Den Haag 2 – 1 PSV Eindhoven

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 PSV Eindhoven 70.7% 1.41 -14.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.9% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.5% 1.44 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 86.6% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.0% 2.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ADO Den Haag13.4%
Draw15.9%
PSV Eindhoven70.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.9%
Under 2.526.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.5%
No30.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)29.3%
12 (either side)84.1%
X2 (draw or away)86.6%
Handicap -1PSV Eindhoven win39.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss40.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.9%
1-18.0%
1-37.3%

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven stats

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven recent form

newest first
ADO Den Haag DDLLDL
PSV Eindhoven LWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven going into this match

league record before kick-off

ADO Den Haag record

  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

PSV Eindhoven record

  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0ADO Den Haag wins 3Draws 7PSV Eindhoven wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-02PSV EindhovenADO Den HaagKNVB Beker3-1
2021-02-13ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenEredivisie2-2
2020-11-01PSV EindhovenADO Den HaagEredivisie4-0
2020-02-15ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenEredivisie0-3
2019-08-11PSV EindhovenADO Den HaagEredivisie3-1
2019-04-21PSV EindhovenADO Den HaagEredivisie3-1
2018-09-15ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenEredivisie0-7
2018-04-29ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenEredivisie3-3
2017-12-16PSV EindhovenADO Den HaagEredivisie3-0
2017-04-15ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenEredivisie1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 11.2%, draw 14.5%, away 74.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 9.75 6.75 1.26
Bet365 7.50 6.25 1.30
BetVictor 8.50 6.50 1.25
Betano 8.00 6.40 1.30
Betfair 10.50 7.00 1.20
Dafabet 8.80 6.80 1.28
Marathonbet 9.10 6.30 1.24
Pinnacle 8.17 6.90 1.29
SBO 6.86 5.51 1.22
William Hill 8.00 6.00 1.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 8.34 ▼ -0.86
X 6.40 ▲ +0.15
2 1.25 —

29 snapshots recorded, from .