Twente
vs
Utrecht
Garuda Lions Prediction: Twente
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Twente vs Utrecht overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Twente vs Utrecht
| Probability | Twente | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.4% | 14.9% | 10.7% |
| Market | 69.7% | 17.7% | 12.7% |
| Final | 70.9% | 17.0% | 12.2% |
| Edge | +4.8% | -2.8% | -2.0% |
Why Twente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.02 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Twente below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Twente vs Utrecht match preview
Twente enters this matchup with a strong 72% probability of winning, while Utrecht stands at 12%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Twente, with a forecast of 3.15 compared to Utrecht's 1.34. Recent form shows Twente unbeaten in their last six matches, with three wins, while Utrecht has a mixed record of two wins and three draws in their last six games.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1 in favor of Twente, with an 8% probability. There is also a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 82%, and both teams scoring at 71%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters indicates a balanced competition, with each team securing one win and one draw.
Twente and Utrecht team news
Twente news
- L. Unnerstall — inactive
- M. Bruns — inactive
- S. Lemkin — muscle injury
Utrecht news
- A. Engwanda — hamstring injury
- A. Stepanov — ankle injury
- K. Paredes — knee injury
- M. Jonathans — knee injury
- N. Ohio — knee injury
- V. Jensen — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Twente and Utrecht expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.16
Twente and Utrecht attack and defence ratings
Twente
Utrecht
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Twente vs Utrecht markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 70.9% | 1.41 | +4.8% | 1.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 70.9% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Utrecht | 12.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win | 55.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 25.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-0 | 7.1% |
Twente vs Utrecht stats
Twente and Utrecht recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Twente and Utrecht season so far
Twente record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Utrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente vs Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Twente | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-13 | Utrecht | Twente | KNVB Beker | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Utrecht | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Twente | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-01 | Utrecht | Twente | Eredivisie | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Twente | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Utrecht | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Utrecht | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-22 | Twente | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2021-12-22 | Utrecht | Twente | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Twente vs Utrecht odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.1%, draw 17.5%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.62 | 7.65 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 5.40 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 5.35 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 5.63 | 7.18 |
| SBO | 1.29 | 4.94 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .