Utrecht
vs
PEC Zwolle
Garuda Lions Prediction: Utrecht
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
| Probability | Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.6% | 16.5% | 13.9% |
| Market | 57.8% | 22.4% | 19.8% |
| Final | 60.8% | 20.9% | 18.3% |
| Edge | +11.8% | -5.9% | -5.9% |
Why Utrecht
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Utrecht below the model: +11.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle match preview
Utrecht hosts PEC Zwolle in an Eredivisie clash with a strong probability favoring the home side at 61%. The expected goals for Utrecht stand at 2.89, compared to PEC Zwolle's 1.29, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the hosts. Recent form shows Utrecht with a mixed record of W-L-W-D-L-D, while PEC Zwolle struggles with L-L-L-D-L-W, further suggesting a challenging match for the visitors.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 79%, and both teams scoring is projected at 69%. In their last two encounters, Utrecht has secured 1 win and 1 draw against PEC Zwolle, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.18
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle attack and defence ratings
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 60.8% | 1.65 | +11.8% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Utrecht | 60.8% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| PEC Zwolle | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win | 50.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 30.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-0 | 6.4% |
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle stats
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle recent form
| Utrecht |
WLWDLD |
| PEC Zwolle |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle season so far
Utrecht record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PEC Zwolle record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | PEC Zwolle | Utrecht | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 21.8%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.38 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.25 | 4.85 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .