Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Ajax
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
1 – 3 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.35 vs 1.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ajax is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
| Probability | Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.6% | 14.7% | 70.8% |
| Market | 15.7% | 18.8% | 65.4% |
| Final | 15.4% | 17.8% | 66.8% |
| Edge | -0.3% | -1.0% | +1.3% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.35 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (our 66.8% × 1.51 − 1).
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax match preview
Sparta Rotterdam will face Ajax in their upcoming Eredivisie match, with Ajax holding a significant advantage in the probabilities, at 65% to win compared to Sparta's 17% and an 18% chance of a draw. The expected goals for the match suggest a dominant performance from Ajax, with 3.26 expected goals against Sparta's 1.70. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-3, occurring with a 7% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sparta Rotterdam has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Ajax has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Ajax with one win and one draw in their last two encounters against Sparta Rotterdam, indicating a historical edge for Ajax in this matchup.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax team news
Sparta Rotterdam news
- S. Mito — injury
Ajax news
- A. Gaaei — injury
- Caio Henrique — thigh injury
- D. Blind — back injury
- K. Dolberg — knee injury
- O. Edvardsen — inactive
- S. Adingra — lacking match fitness
- S. Berghuis — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.95
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax attack and defence ratings
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 66.8% | 1.50 | +1.3% | 1.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Rotterdam | 15.4% |
| Draw | 17.8% | |
| Ajax | 66.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% |
| No | 22.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 53.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.1% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | |
| 1-4 | 5.9% |
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax stats
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax recent form
| Sparta Rotterdam |
WDLLDL |
| Ajax |
WWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax season so far
Sparta Rotterdam record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | Eredivisie | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.7%, draw 18.9%, away 65.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.67 | 4.95 | 1.51 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 5.00 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 6.00 | 4.90 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 5.20 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 5.50 | 4.80 | 1.46 |
| Pinnacle | 6.00 | 5.13 | 1.44 |
| SBO | 4.79 | 4.26 | 1.42 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .