Ajax
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.43.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ajax is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 22.4% | 24.6% |
| Market | 50.7% | 22.9% | 26.4% |
| Final | 51.3% | 22.8% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.1% | -0.5% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.43.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 51.3% × 1.89 − 1).
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar match preview
Ajax faces AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash with Ajax holding a 50% probability of winning, while AZ Alkmaar has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Ajax, with an expected goals tally of 2.11 for Ajax and 1.62 for AZ Alkmaar. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 71%, and there is a 72% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Ajax has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while AZ Alkmaar has three wins, one draw, and two losses in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last three encounters, Ajax has not secured a win, with AZ Alkmaar winning twice and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 51.3% | 1.95 | +0.6% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 51.3% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% |
| No | 31.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Ajax |
WWWLDD |
| AZ Alkmaar |
LWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar season so far
Ajax record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AZ Alkmaar record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | AZ Alkmaar | Ajax | Eredivisie | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | AZ Alkmaar | Ajax | KNVB Beker | 6-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 22.9%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 4.22 | 3.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 4.21 | 3.67 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .