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Eredivisie · ·Matchday 11

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Garuda Lions Prediction: PEC Zwolle

2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PEC Zwolle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle 39%
Draw 25%
ADO Den Haag 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance PEC Zwolle wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
7% of simulated outcomes

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag overview

Garuda Lions analysis: PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPEC ZwolleDrawADO Den Haag
Model30.2%23.2%46.7%
Market41.9%25.6%32.5%
Final39.0%25.0%36.1%
Edge-2.9%-0.6%+3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 39.0% × 2.31 − 1).

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag match preview

PEC Zwolle faces ADO Den Haag in an Eredivisie clash with PEC Zwolle holding a 39% probability of winning compared to ADO Den Haag's 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 7% likelihood. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 70% chance of both teams finding the net and a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.

In terms of expected goals, PEC Zwolle is estimated to score 1.61 while ADO Den Haag is projected to net 2.01. Recent form indicates PEC Zwolle has recorded a draw, a win, and three losses in their last six matches, while ADO Den Haag's recent results include one win, three draws, and two losses. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

PEC Zwolle ↓ / ADO Den Haag → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag expected goals

PEC Zwolle 1.60
ADO Den Haag 2.01

Total expected goals: 3.62

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag attack and defence ratings

PEC Zwolle

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.27 +27%

ADO Den Haag

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Eredivisie

Before and after this match

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 PEC Zwolle 39.0% 2.57 -2.9% 2.31
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.1% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.8% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2PEC Zwolle39.0%
Draw25.0%
ADO Den Haag36.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.1%
No29.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.9%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)61.0%
Handicap -1PEC Zwolle win14.8%
Push (exactly one goal)15.3%
Loss69.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.5%
1-28.7%
2-27.0%
Compare prices for this pick

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag stats

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag recent form

newest first
PEC Zwolle DWLLLD
ADO Den Haag LWDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag season so far

league record

PEC Zwolle record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ADO Den Haag record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 25.6%, away 32.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.31 3.78 2.90
Bet365 2.25 3.60 2.88
BetVictor 2.20 3.70 2.90
Betano 2.30 3.60 2.95
Betfair 2.20 3.80 2.80
Marathonbet 2.24 3.66 2.81
Pinnacle 2.21 3.74 3.02
William Hill 2.25 3.40 2.80
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 —
X 3.68 ▲ +0.06
2 2.89 ▲ +0.04

13 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 PEC Zwolle Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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