Groningen
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Garuda Lions Prediction: Groningen
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.23 vs 1.79.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
| Probability | Groningen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| Market | 54.6% | 22.5% | 22.9% |
| Final | 57.4% | 20.9% | 21.7% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
Why Groningen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.23 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Groningen below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (our 57.4% × 1.78 − 1).
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam match preview
Groningen faces Sparta Rotterdam in a matchup where the home side holds a significant probability of winning at 61%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 3-1, with an impressive expectation of over 2.5 goals at 88% and both teams scoring at 81%. Groningen's recent form shows a mix of results with two draws, two wins, and a loss, while Sparta Rotterdam has struggled, recording one win and five games without a victory.
Historically, Sparta Rotterdam has had the upper hand in their last three encounters, winning all three matches against Groningen. The expected goals for Groningen stand at 3.25, compared to 1.81 for Sparta Rotterdam, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home team. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.02
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam attack and defence ratings
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 57.4% | 1.74 | +2.8% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Groningen win | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 57.4% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.3% |
| No | 19.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Groningen win | 48.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.7% |
| 2-1 | 6.2% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% |
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam stats
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam recent form
| Groningen |
DLWWDD |
| Sparta Rotterdam |
LWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam season so far
Groningen record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
Sparta Rotterdam record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Sparta Rotterdam | Groningen | Eredivisie | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Sparta Rotterdam | Groningen | KNVB Beker | 5-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.6%, draw 22.5%, away 22.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.15 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 4.15 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | 4.18 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .