Heerenveen
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heerenveen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.26.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
| Probability | Heerenveen | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 21.2% | 19.5% |
| Market | 48.8% | 22.9% | 28.2% |
| Final | 51.4% | 22.5% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -0.4% | -2.2% |
Why Heerenveen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Heerenveen below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (our 51.4% × 1.98 − 1).
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen match preview
Heerenveen enters this match with a probability of 54% to win, while NEC Nijmegen stands at 24%. The expected goals for Heerenveen are 2.28, compared to NEC Nijmegen's 1.22, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side. Recent form shows Heerenveen with two wins in their last five matches, while NEC Nijmegen has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Heerenveen, with a 10% probability. Additionally, the model suggests a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Heerenveen has secured one win and one draw against NEC Nijmegen, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen attack and defence ratings
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 51.4% | 1.94 | +2.6% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 51.4% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen stats
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen recent form
| Heerenveen |
WWLWDL |
| NEC Nijmegen |
DWDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen season so far
Heerenveen record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
NEC Nijmegen record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | Eredivisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.8%, draw 22.9%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 4.18 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 4.05 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 4.29 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .