Excelsior Maassluis
vs
Heerenveen
0 – 2 Full time
| 46′ | M. RiveraM. Farji | ||
| 51′ | W. Vermeer | ||
| 61′ | Y. Hamd | ||
| 63′ | D. Vente | ||
| 64′ | N. CourtensD. Proper | ||
| 70′ | J. den HaanB. Riley | ||
| 70′ | P. BotiJ. Verbont | ||
| 75′ | J. Trenskow | ||
| 76′ | M. TahiriF. Grabovac | ||
| 76′ | R. MeerveldL. Oyen | ||
| 76′ | S. KerstenM. Hilgers | ||
| 76′ | W. VermeerB. Wennekers | ||
| 78′ | K. Ringeling | ||
| 81′ | M. Hilgers | ||
| 81′ | J. TrenskowL. Machine | ||
| 86′ | D. SlagveerN. Nagtegaal |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 27 | Possession % | 73 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 129 | Accurate passes | 523 |
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen
| Probability | Excelsior Maassluis | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.7% | 24.7% | 45.5% |
| Market | 9.6% | 16.2% | 74.3% |
| Final | 14.6% | 18.3% | 67.1% |
| Edge | +5.0% | +2.1% | -7.2% |
Why Heerenveen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.45.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Excelsior Maassluis and Heerenveen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Excelsior Maassluis and Heerenveen attack and defence ratings
Excelsior Maassluis
Heerenveen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen: result vs prediction
Excelsior Maassluis 0 – 2 Heerenveen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 67.1% | 1.49 | -7.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior Maassluis | 14.6% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Heerenveen | 67.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen stats
Excelsior Maassluis and Heerenveen recent form
| Excelsior Maassluis |
WDLWW |
| Heerenveen |
WWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.6%, draw 16.2%, away 74.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 9.60 | 5.70 | 1.25 |
| Bet365 | 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 8.75 | 5.40 | 1.23 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 |
| Dafabet | 11.00 | 6.60 | 1.24 |
| Marathonbet | 9.60 | 5.70 | 1.24 |
| Pinnacle | 7.49 | 5.59 | 1.22 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .