Helmond Sport
vs
Willem II
3 – 4 Full time
| 2′ | B. Koglin | ||
| 9′ | M. Ludwig | ||
| 28′ | D. Haen | ||
| 40′ | E. Gurbuz | ||
| 42′ | E. Gurbuz | ||
| 46′ | A. ZarroukT. Vilhena | ||
| 46′ | T. PollJ. van der Sluijs | ||
| 53′ | T. Vilhena | ||
| 56′ | T. EssakkatiH. Ingason | ||
| 56′ | D. HuibertsL. Bajrami | ||
| 58′ | H. ter AvestA. Et Taibi | ||
| 58′ | J. SchuurmanJ. Slory | ||
| 62′ | E. Gurbuz | ||
| 66′ | D. HaenC. Obi | ||
| 72′ | L. Bajrami | ||
| 73′ | M. Lemmens | ||
| 73′ | J. van der Sluijs | ||
| 74′ | B. KoglinF. Van Den Eynden | ||
| 78′ | J. Slory | ||
| 83′ | E. GurbuzP. van Loon | ||
| 85′ | L. Bajrami |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 349 | Accurate passes | 493 |
Helmond Sport vs Willem II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs Willem II
| Probability | Helmond Sport | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 21.8% | 23.8% |
| Market | 28.0% | 25.0% | 47.0% |
| Final | 34.6% | 24.2% | 41.2% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -0.8% | -5.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Helmond Sport and Willem II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Helmond Sport and Willem II attack and defence ratings
Helmond Sport
Willem II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Helmond Sport vs Willem II: result vs prediction
Helmond Sport 3 – 4 Willem II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Helmond Sport vs Willem II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Willem II | 41.2% | 2.43 | -5.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 34.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Willem II | 41.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Willem II win | 10.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.9% | |
| Loss | 76.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Helmond Sport vs Willem II stats
Helmond Sport and Willem II recent form
| Helmond Sport |
LLLDLL |
| Willem II |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Helmond Sport vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | Helmond Sport | Willem II | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Willem II | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Helmond Sport | Willem II | Eerste Divisie | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-15 | Willem II | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 4-1 |
| 2023-02-03 | Willem II | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 5-1 |
| 2022-10-14 | Helmond Sport | Willem II | Eerste Divisie | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Helmond Sport vs Willem II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 25.0%, away 47.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 3.66 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.75 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.66 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.52 | 1.91 |
| SBO | 2.90 | 3.28 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .