Helmond Sport
vs
FC Eindhoven
Garuda Lions Prediction: Helmond Sport
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Helmond Sport is the favourite, not a value bet.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
| Probability | Helmond Sport | Draw | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 22.8% | 26.3% |
| Market | 44.4% | 25.5% | 30.1% |
| Final | 46.0% | 24.8% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
Why Helmond Sport
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.48.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.14 − 1).
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven match preview
Helmond Sport faces FC Eindhoven in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for Helmond Sport at 46%, compared to 29% for FC Eindhoven and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate a strong offensive performance from Helmond Sport at 2.10, while FC Eindhoven is projected to score 1.48. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Helmond Sport, with a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, each at 69%.
Recent form shows Helmond Sport struggling with six games without a win, while FC Eindhoven has managed one victory in their last six, albeit with a similar trend of poor results. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having one win in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven attack and defence ratings
Helmond Sport
FC Eindhoven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 46.0% | 2.17 | +1.6% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 46.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| FC Eindhoven | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Helmond Sport win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven stats
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven recent form
| Helmond Sport |
LLLDLL |
| FC Eindhoven |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven season so far
Helmond Sport record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
FC Eindhoven record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | FC Eindhoven | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Helmond Sport | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.5%, away 30.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.65 | 3.08 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.65 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.69 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .