FC Volendam
vs
De Graafschap
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Volendam
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.20.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
| Probability | FC Volendam | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.5% | 17.5% | 14.0% |
| Market | 46.1% | 22.9% | 31.0% |
| Final | 51.7% | 21.5% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +5.6% | -1.3% | -4.3% |
Why FC Volendam
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Volendam below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.0% per unit staked (our 51.7% × 2.09 − 1).
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap match preview
FC Volendam is favored to win against De Graafschap with a 53% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Volendam's recent form shows a mixed bag with three wins and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, De Graafschap has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their recent outings.
The expected goals for FC Volendam stand at 2.71, while De Graafschap is projected to score 1.20. Our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 75%, and there is a 66% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, suggesting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Volendam and De Graafschap expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
FC Volendam and De Graafschap attack and defence ratings
FC Volendam
De Graafschap
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 51.7% | 1.93 | +5.6% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 51.7% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| De Graafschap | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 31.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap stats
FC Volendam and De Graafschap recent form
| FC Volendam |
WDWLWL |
| De Graafschap |
DLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Volendam and De Graafschap season so far
FC Volendam record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
De Graafschap record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 22.9%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 4.10 | 2.94 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 4.10 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 4.10 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 4.05 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .