Waalwijk
vs
Almere City FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Waalwijk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Waalwijk is the favourite, not a value bet.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC
| Probability | Waalwijk | Draw | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 27.7% | 38.3% |
| Market | 43.6% | 24.3% | 32.1% |
| Final | 41.2% | 25.1% | 33.7% |
| Edge | -2.4% | +0.8% | +1.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (our 41.2% × 2.16 − 1).
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC match preview
Waalwijk faces Almere City FC in an Eerste Divisie match with kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Waalwijk has a 41% probability of winning, while Almere City FC stands at 34%, and a draw is estimated at 25%. The expected goals for Waalwijk are 1.35, compared to Almere City FC's 1.44. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Waalwijk, occurring with an 8% probability.
In terms of recent form, Waalwijk has recorded two draws, two losses, and one win in their last five matches, while Almere City FC has seen two losses, three wins, and one loss in the same span. Historically, in their last two encounters, Waalwijk has one win and one draw against Almere City FC, which has yet to secure a victory. The model suggests a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Waalwijk and Almere City FC attack and defence ratings
Waalwijk
Almere City FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 41.2% | 2.43 | -2.4% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 41.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Almere City FC | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC stats
Waalwijk and Almere City FC recent form
| Waalwijk |
DDLDLW |
| Almere City FC |
LLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waalwijk and Almere City FC season so far
Waalwijk record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Almere City FC record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Almere City FC | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Waalwijk | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 24.3%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 3.85 | 2.87 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.92 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.87 | 2.93 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .